FtF News #99 – 28th April 2021
The might of methane, moderate improvements in climate ambition, and a massive carbon accounting gap
Hello, and welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly rundown of the latest climate news.
As is the nature of such things, climate news ebbs and flows, and this week has been relatively quiet – a welcome lull in what can often feel an overwhelming tide of events. Hence this week’s edition is a little shorter than sometimes, which is probably a good thing given my usual verbosity!
State of the world
Climate research and findings, weather events and studies
A new UN report is expected to declare the importance of tackling methane emissions. Methane is fairly well known as a relatively short-lived, but potent greenhouse gas, but with more and more detection capabilities coming online in recent times, it’s become clear that far more methane is being emitted than was previously thought, and those emissions are still growing rapidly, year on year. On the flip side, however, the short-lived nature of methane means that tackling emissions of the gas offers a far more rapid route to slowing warming than CO2. Whilst both need to be addressed, a concerted effort to cut methane emissions in three key areas could reduce emissions by 45% by 2030, which could reduce warming by up to 0.3°C by the 2040s.
Up to 20% of groundwater wells worldwide are in danger of running dry – problematic given that they supply water for half the world’s irrigated agriculture, as well as drinking water for billions. The new study analysed data for 39m wells across 40 different countries, and found that most are barely deeper than their groundwater tables, putting them at risk should groundwater recede, as has happened in many areas due to increased use, changing weather conditions and more.
Around 85% of Mexico is now under drought conditions, with lakes and reservoirs drying up across the country. Conditions are thought to be the worst in at least 30 years, with some reservoirs down to a third of normal capacity, with a month and a half to go before any chance of significant rainfall. The country’s second largest freshwater lake, Lake Cuitzeo, is 75% dried up, and is at risk of being lost entirely.
Planet positives
Moving towards a greener and more equitable world
Progress, of a sort
One of the principal goals of the US Earth Day climate summit was to encourage other countries to increase their ambition. Now that the event has wrapped up, it’s hard to be overwhelmed by the response, although some progress was made. The US, as reported last week, came forward with its target of 50% emissions reduction by 2030 versus 2005 levels, but few others strengthened their commitments. Canada and Japan both increased their commitments, with Japan promising 46% reductions below 2013 levels and Canada 45% below 2005 by 2030. Both are significant improvements from their previous targets, but still lag UK and EU ambition. South Korea promised an updated NDC later in the year, and agreed to stop funding coal plants overseas – a small but significant win.
Many hoped that China would come forward with more concrete plans, but whilst they reaffirmed their 2060 carbon neutrality goal, little more was revealed. Xi Jinping did agree to ratify the Kigali Amendment on HFCs at a separate meeting with French and German leaders, but tensions remain high between China and the US. Greta Thunberg, in her usual direct manner, called out the rather hollow nature of long-range climate targets in an Earth Day piece in Vogue, which argues that ultimately, climate action will only come if we all work together – a sentiment it’s hard to argue with.
Adverse circumstances
Events that move the needle in the wrong direction
Mind the gap
There’s a growing gap in emissions accounting between the models used by countries for their own emissions and those used by independent climate models. The size of this gap? At least 5.5 billion tons of CO2. Much of the gap comes down to how different countries account for the benefits of forestry (once again, forestry proves complex and troublesome for carbon accounting!). Countries are usually allowed to count ‘managed’ forests as negative emissions, the theory being that avoiding deforestation and fire risk helps increase carbon take-up. However, some countries (hi USA!) count virtually all of their forests as managed, lopping a sizeable chunk from their emissions totals. This is problematic as countries head towards ‘net zero’, as this accounting model allows them to continue emitting by counting natural forests as carbon-negative.
Swiss Re, the insurer, has released the results of its latest climate ‘stress test’ analysis. It found that global GDP could shrink by up to 18% by 2050 if climate change is not tackled, with the worst consequences striking Asian economies such as China. This simply adds to the mountain of evidence documenting the monumental economic costs of not tackling climate change (to say nothing of social, societal and environmental impacts). It seems that despite the clear arguments for climate action, we still cook the books in our favour to avoid doing what we must.
Long Reads
Interesting deep-dives into climate-related topics
The benefits and drawbacks of biomass have long been debated in environmental circles, but this dive into the wood pellet industry is fascinating. Whilst there’s definitely potential for positive impact from the industry, its current implementation has some unpleasant side-effects, particularly on communities around the plants where the pellets are made. In addition, as with many forestry-related industries, determining the true environmental impact is very difficult, with an abundance of hard-to-measure factors at play. This article also felt especially relevant given the trains supplying Drax go right past my window every day!
The second piece I’m highlighting this week is a little different – it’s an open letter from three environmental scientists on the dangers of net-zero. They make a compelling case for net-zero becoming a get-out clause for politicians to promise climate salvation whilst putting off meaningful emissions reductions until later (making the task ever harder). Net-zero has involved a series of ever more involved solutions, including BECCS, DAC and more, all of which promise to massively help with emissions, but few if any have meaningfully been implemented in a cost-effective manner.
Quick Headlines
Some quick climate news nuggets to sate your appetite
Japan has cancelled its last planned new coal power plant, amidst stricter environmental rules and tighter financing on carbon-intensive projects.
Gravitricity, a UK startup working on gravity-based energy storage, has generated its first power from its demonstrator unit.