Hello, and welcome to another edition of Forge the Future. This week saw elections in Canada and Switzerland. Whilst neither saw major changes (Trudeau held on with a slim majority, and the SVP still has the largest proportion of the vote), both saw significant gains for green parties with green policy becoming a major issue. In Canada, the Greens had their best result to date, despite a few hiccups during the election campaign, and both the Liberals and the NDP had strong climate plans. In Switzerland, the Green Party and the Green Liberals together took 21% of the vote, and there’s even talk of one of the two taking one of the 7 cabinet seats, which have been held by the same four parties for the last 60 years.
I’d also like to draw your attention to HEATED - the climate newsletter by Emily Atkin. You may well be aware of it, but it’s one of my regular reads on climate happenings every week. This week covered the aforementioned Canadian election, as well as diving into how Mitch McConnell, the current Senate Majority Leader in the US, has been so effective in thwarting efforts to tackle climate change.
State of the Climate
CO2 levels this week: 408.78 ppm
This time last year: 406.61 ppm
Another week, and more of California is on fire. The utility company PG&E has continued with its ‘preventative’ blackouts (to stop bits of their ageing infrastructure setting the place alight), with an estimated 970,000 customers left without power. PG&E’s CEO has said the blackouts could continue for the next decade as the company attempts to repair years of neglect. Despite this, the Kincade wildfire (the largest of the current batch, having burned 74,000 acres so far) is reported to have been caused by PG&E equipment. The blackouts have had severe consequences, with residents not only left without power, but without cell reception - in some cases emergency services had to go door to door to tell residents to evacuate, as many were not able to receive evacuation notices.
Elsewhere, the Russian navy has confirmed the discovery of 5 new islands uncovered by melting glaciers in Novaya Zemlya. No doubt there will be more as glaciers continue to melt worldwide. New research suggests that glacial rivers actually absorb CO2 at a higher rate, per unit area, than rainforests. Whilst this doesn’t mean meltwater can replace the Amazon, it does offer another reason to save glaciers - whilst the current melting means that glacial rivers are running higher than normal, that only lasts until the glaciers are gone.
Researchers on Mullion Island, an isolated bird sanctuary, have solved the puzzling presence of rubber bands on the islands. Endangered gulls that nest there have been eating them, mistaking them for food, then regurgitating them later. The researchers also found green fishing net and twine in large quantities on the island, showing that even the absence of humans doesn’t prevent the spread of plastics.
Visualisation of the Week
This week’s visualisation comes from the New York Times, and displays projections of new research suggesting we may have underestimated the effects of sea level rise by 2050. Vietnam is one of the worst-affected regions, with much of South Vietnam potentially underwater during high tides.
The Revolving Door
More and more it seems like the US government is like a retirement home for industry executives - this week it was revealed that a secret agreement has been in place for years around building codes. This guaranteed 4 of 11 seats on two powerful committees to industry representatives, giving them massive influence over homebuilding policy. So what? In the six years prior to this agreement, the energy efficiency of building codes improved by 32%, whereas in the same duration afterwards? 3%. This is a pattern seen across the US in government - I’ve mentioned before about David Bernhardt, the Interior Secretary, in previous issues. He used to lobby for agricultural interests in California, and since gaining his position has set about giving them everything they’ve wanted for years, such as raising the Shasta dam, or removing protections on fish to allow farmers more water (see below). He is far from the only such figure. The New York Times has covered the increasing roster of ex-lobbyists now taking senior government positions - the Trump administration has, according to a recent analysis, appointed 281 former lobbyists.
However, whilst the US is one of the most egregious examples, it’s far from the only one. Most governments have cosy relationships with industry, and it’s very common for ex-politicians to slide into well paying jobs after having helped certain laws fall in a favourable fashion for their soon-to-be employers. It’s always been despicable, but now the environment is becoming clear too. Indeed, the situation in America is such that some have argued that the outsize influence of the fossil fuel industry now means that no Republican Presidential candidate can stand on an environmental platform.
Is this inevitable? Some of the new figures rising up in politics suggest that there might be hope yet. Watching AOC tear into Exxon’s climate denial makes me want to believe that there is a better, less seedy future for politics, where the system does not inevitably warp those who enter. Perhaps the climate movement can seed more of those figures - many of the youth activists clamouring for change on climate today have a level of integrity well beyond their years. Will that be enough? Only time will tell.
News Highlights
US versus the Climate
Trump versus California continues - now the administration is challenging California’s cap-and-trade scheme, as the scheme involves a Canadian province, so is technically a federal rather than a state agreement. This challenge is on stronger legal ground than previous ones, and even if it doesn’t succeed, may still scare away businesses from committing to allowances that may be revoked if the challenge goes through.
The New York Times went through and detailed all 85 environmental regulations that have or are in the process of being rolled back under the Trump administration.
The US Army released a massive report on the implications of climate change. Tl;dr - it’s not good - they suggest vast implications on migration, infrastructure, with starvation, blackouts, disease and war all potentially on the horizon. However, the report fails to suggest action on the climate, instead suggesting ramping up military spending and securing Arctic fossil fuel reserves.
Former Exxon scientists have been testifying to Congress on the firm’s knowledge of climate change back in the 80s. It’s worth watching some of the clips of the testimony if you have time. Meanwhile lawsuits against fossil fuel companies continue to build - a Baltimore case was brought up at the Supreme Court by fossil fuel companies in an attempt to stymie it, but rejected this week, and the New York case continues on.
The Trump administration is trying to ease protections for the iconic sage grouse, which happens to make its home on oil and gas rich land. Fortunately a federal judge stepped in to stop the plan, for now at least.
The administration is also trying to lower protections for delta smelt. The fish, which live in the Sacramento delta, are protected, meaning that in times of drought, they get water priority over farmers. The new rulings plan to undo this, which handily aligns with Interior Secretary David Bernhardt’s former lobbying clients’ objectives.
Trump has indicated he will continue with the US’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement (well, he actually said he’d already done it, but he can’t do so until the 4th November).
US air quality is worsening, after a significant period of improvement - air pollution dropped 24% between 2009 and 2016, but increased 5.5% from 2017-18. Members of the EPA’s clean air committee, dismissed earlier this year, have convened anyway and in a letter to the new head of the EPA, concluded that current air pollution policies are in no way enough to protect public health.
Other News
A £1bn UK export finance deal intended to support green energy is being funneled into fracking in Argentina.
$300bn would be enough to slow global warming for 20 years, giving enough time to properly address climate change. Coincidentally, £300bn of suspect funds were found to be funneled through UK banks, law firms and accountants.
A new IEA report on offshore wind estimates that it could become a $1tn industry by 2040, and that there is enough capacity to power the entire world’s demand. Globally, capacity could grow as much as 15-fold by 2040.
A species of beetle has been named for the activist Greta Thunberg
A group of young Canadians are taking their government to court over climate change, in the latest of a series of legal cases involving young people versus their governments.
A German dairy farmer is taking the German government to court over climate change. As climate change starts to impact Europe, it’s farmers who are taking the economic brunt of the changes first.
New research suggests that whilst organic farming reduces emissions per unit area, it requires more land per unit of food produced, and hence overall is actually worse for the climate.
The New York Times covered flying from a US perspective. Whilst around half of Americans don’t fly, 12% account for ⅔ of aviation emissions.
Long Reads
A rundown of the storied life of famed presenter David Attenborough, still going strong at age 93
An exploration of desalination technology, which humanity will increasingly rely on to produce freshwater as temperatures rise and ground water levels decrease.
End Times
That’s all I have for you this week. As always, if you made it this far, thank you for reading, and please do share if you enjoyed it! See you next week,