Hello, and welcome to the 10th edition of Forge the Future - these past 9 weeks have really flown by! I’d like to thank all of you that’ve been reading along and spreading the word - I very much appreciate it.
There’s been a lot of climate-related news this week - too much to cover in detail. I’m going to take a different tack this time, and focus on one main story, hopefully giving it more justice, as well as keep the newsletter to a more manageable length. As always, please do let me know what you think!
State of the Climate
This week, CO2 levels are at 410.36ppm, versus last year’s level of 408.36ppm. This week saw us hit Overshoot day (the day in the year where we use up more from the planet than we can renew), earlier than last year. Whilst troubling in itself that this day is earlier each year, arguably it’s still underestimating the scale of the crisis we face.
Visualisation of the Week
This chart, shared by Dr Kate Marvel, shows that land temperatures are over 1.5°C - the temperature that the Paris Agreement is supposed to provide policies to limit warming to. Whilst this result is not surprising - ocean comprises much of the Earth’s surface, and land tends to warm quicker, so the overall warming is closer to 1°C - it’s still alarming.
European Heatwave
One of the bigger stories of the week has been the continuing European heatwave, which has set temperature records across Western Europe. Here in London, it briefly hit 38°C, and much of Europe saw temperatures over 40°C. Unfortunately, if things continue as they are, 2019 will become the norm - at a 3°C rise, 9 out of 10 summers will be this hot.
This has highlighted how unprepared Europe is for such weather. The infrastructure and buildings are designed for much lower temperatures, and are being pushed to breaking point by the rising temperatures. Whilst in the US, some 90% of homes have air-conditioning, much of Europe does not, and our buildings are not designed for hot weather. In the UK, the railways suffered huge delays as operators slowed trains due to risks of the track buckling, as the tracks are not set up for such wide swings in temperature. Meanwhile, in France and Germany, nuclear reactors had to slow operations as the rivers they use for cooling were too warm.
Even as such events highlight how unprepared we are, our politicians do little, despite the overwhelming scientific consensus. A recent survey showed 71% of Britons feel that Climate Change is more pressing than Brexit (impressive indeed considering how emotive that topic is), and yet our new Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, is pushing for a hard Brexit that could wreak havoc on the UK’s environmental plans. In France, after Greta Thunberg gave a powerful speech at the Assemblée Nationale, she was mocked by right-wing politicians. Apparently haranguing a teenager is easier than accepting the truth of the crisis we face.
Only this week, it was announced that the UK has spent £680m of its foreign aid budget on fossil fuel projects since 2010, with 60% of the £7.8bn provided by the UK in financial support to foreign energy projects spent on fossil fuels. What’s the point of cleaning up at home, if we continue to support fossil fuels elsewhere? We all breathe the same air. The CCC has projected that the UK needs to plant 30,000 hectares of trees per year to meet zero-emissions by 2050. The last time we hit that figure was 1989, last year’s planting was 13,400 hectares.
And this is just in Europe - elsewhere in the world, where temperatures are higher, there are far more severe risks than uncomfortably hot summers and slow trains. In hotter and wetter countries, particularly those in SE Asia, temperatures are rising further still. The risk comes when the ‘wetbulb’ temperature (a measure of humidity and temperature) rises above 35°C, the human body cannot cool itself. Without air-conditioning, people can die within hours. The worry is that a heatwave combined with a blackout - known as a ‘grey swan’ event - could sweep across countries, killing thousands.
The rising temperatures are also fueling increased energy use, as air-conditioning use. This could lead to a dangerous feedback cycle, where increasingly extreme temperatures cause higher energy usage, which increases emissions. Already we are starting to realise the implications from increased air-conditioning use, as countries develop and heat up simultaneously. Whilst alternative technologies exist, current systems are so cheap that it is impossible to compete effectively whilst the climate externalities are not counted.
Week upon week brings more stories of the world struggling to deal with the changes being wrought upon it. The weather system behind the European heatwave is headed for Greenland next, and threatens to bring the world’s second largest ice sheet to record low levels. The Arctic as a whole is suffering, and huge peat fires are burning without precedent across Siberia and Canada. A new study found that Alaskan glaciers are melting 100 times faster than previously thought, once seawater effects were taken into account. In North Carolina, residents are already feeling the impact of repeated floods, and whilst most will be compensated for their lost homes in time, what happens to the next city, and the next? Will the government continue to rebuild houses, or will it shrug and accept such events as just something that happens?
Is there hope?
The new movements that are rising do bring hope - modern climate movements are more engaged, more organised and more effective than at any time in the past, but will it be enough? It’s one of those questions we will only be able to answer with time. It is possible to make large scale changes - look at the recent efforts of Ethiopia, which planted 350m trees in one day to help reverse massive deforestation in the country. Is it a stunt? Quite possibly, but an effective one.
We have the technology - indeed, more is being developed all the time. What we lack is political will. The only way to change that is to make it known that we want change, and want it now. It crosses political boundaries - here is an issue that will affect us all.
News highlights
Here’s a brief overview of some of the other climate related stories this week.
More evidence has arisen of the huge deforestation occurring in the Amazon. Brazil’s president remains unrepentant. Uncontacted tribes are living in fear of illegal loggers that deny their existence whilst killing them for their land.
More evidence has come to light of the difficulty of recycling plastic. Bioplastics aren’t necessarily better either, so potentially the only route is to incinerate them.
The UK generated the majority of its electricity from low-carbon sources, with 53% of power coming from nuclear and renewables. Carbon Brief did some excellent analysis of the potential path to zero emissions, and some of the unknowns in the government’s plans thus far.
Wind power provided more electricity in Texas than coal for the first time (22% versus 21%). The Lone Star State also has a huge (and currently untapped) potential for solar power, though political will is lacking.
Predicted total global solar installations are estimated at 114.5GW this year - both a new record and the first time new installations have topped 100GW. This comes despite China cutting back its Feed-in Tariffs this year (although it will still contribute over ⅓ of that global total).
Honda, Ford, BMW and Volkswagen have struck a deal with California legislators to tighten emissions despite Trump rolling back Obama-era emissions regulations. The four manufacturers (comprising 30% of the US car industry) have committed to an average of 51mpg by 2026, versus the national level of 37mpg.
Meanwhile, in Ohio, a utility-backed law has passed subsiding coal power and gutting clean energy programs. It has been dubbed the worst effort yet in states’ efforts to roll back clean energy laws.
In brighter news, a new thermophotovoltaic cell design has been developed that could yield up to 50% efficiency (current PV cells max out at around 28%, and most are lower). This could revolutionise the solar market further still.
Community
For those of you in London, there’s a meetup happening at 6.30PM BST, this Thursday, at The Strongroom, on Curtain Road, Shoreditch. If you’re free, it’d be great to meet and have a chat about climate-related news, what we can do, and more.
Endgame
That’s it for this edition. Thanks for reading through, and as always, please do recommend this newsletter to others if you found it interesting - the more people we can reach, the better!
See you next week,
Oli