Hello, and welcome to Forge the Future #8. I’ve tried to cut the length down a little, as these emails have been getting longer and longer. Hopefully this week’s edition will be a little less like the climate equivalent of War and Peace!
Please do let me know what you think - do you prefer things more condensed? Would you prefer that these mails were shorter still? I’m always looking for more feedback!
State of the Climate
This week’s CO2 levels are at 412.46 ppm. NASA has confirmed that June 2019 was the warmest on record - 0.93°C about the 1951-1980 average.
Weather
Harare, Zimbabwe’s capital, is suffering from drought conditions, with half the population lacking water. Chennai is now sending in water by train to try and relieve their drought. Washington received a month of rain in one day, straining their drains to breaking point.
Climate related extreme weather is pushing many cities to their limits, and some are wondering where the money will come from for much needed upgrades to aging infrastructure. The UK’s Committee for Climate Change, an independent advisory body, released its 2019 progress report this week, which highlighted that not only is the UK not tackling climate change as well as it should, it’s also not preparing for the effects of climate change. It’s easy to forget that even if we manage to reduce emissions and keep warming under 1.5°C, we’ll still need extensive investments to cope with the changes.
On top of this, the 10 countries thought to be most vulnerable to climate change will all experience huge population booms this century. Perhaps the solution is investing more in clean energy R&D, as only in this fashion can we help developing countries avoid the worst impacts. It’s tempting to mitigate pollution in our own countries above others, but R&D in clean energy benefits everyone.
Research released this week compared the predicted conditions in 520 major cities in 2050 with those today. London will end up more like Barcelona, and over 20% of the cities will have weather conditions unlike anywhere in the world today.
Pollution
Pollution continues to be a problem worldwide, with China’s air becoming so dirty that solar panels there have decreased their output by 11-15%. A new study has found billions of pollution particles in the hearts of city dwellers. No-one knows exactly what the health implications are, but it likely isn’t good.
Politics
13 countries have still yet to ratify the Paris Agreement, including Russia and Turkey, although Russia is saying it will ratify early next year. Meanwhile, clean energy investments have plummeted 14% from last year. Much of the drop is thought to be due to China withdrawing clean energy subsidies to encourage the industry to increase efficiency - their clean energy investments dropped 39% in the last year. It’s important that renewables eventually compete on a level playing field, but at the same time, we need more renewables now.
The EU is making a coordinated move on single-use plastics, banning items such as plates, cutlery, straws and stirrers from sale across the EU from 2021. The consumption of a number of other items will need to be reduced heavily by member states by 2025. Plastics are a complex issue to tackle, with the trade-offs between different items not as clear cut as it first appears, but this ban looks to be a good first step.
Colorado is considering forcing drilling companies to track and report methane emissions. The announcement comes as research shows that methane emissions from California homes are an order of magnitude higher than previously thought. Whilst much of the focus is on CO2, methane is a shorter-lived but much more potent greenhouse gas, meaning that it has a much higher impact in the short term. Any attempts to track and reduce methane emissions are good news.
The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) is enforcing new emissions standards across international shipping from 1st Jan 2020. This is massive, as international shipping is a huge source of emissions, and because it lies between countries has largely avoided regulation up until now. Sulphur levels in fuel will have to be a maximum of 0.5%, down from 3.5%, which will cause problems for oil companies, who will have a massive oversupply of high-sulphur fuels as demand plummets.
The oil industry is starting to struggle, with OPEC labelling striking students and other anti-fossil fuel protests as the industry’s biggest threat. Greta Thunberg called it ‘our biggest compliment yet’. In a worrying development, a number of US states are putting laws to make protesting against oil and gas pipelines punishable by steep penalties to dissuade protestors from blocking expansions.
France is pushing forward with plans to tax aviation, putting a fee on nearly all flights leaving the country from 2020. Germany and Sweden already have similar taxes, which could pave the way for EU-wide coordination. Wired explain the implications of the tax, and how it could go much further - currently it will add a mere €1.50 to the average domestic flight, which is unlikely to dissuade anyone from flying.
Business
Nearly a quarter of the worlds biggest companies don’t disclose their emissions, and half don’t factor climate change into decision making. This really shows how little of the business world is really committed to climate change - I feel like there will be major disruption in the coming years, and a number of companies are not going to make it.
A number of billionaires are finally developing a conscience, with a £500,000 donation to Extinction Rebellion and other grassroots causes, and the promise of more to come. Billionaires have previously come under fire for making plans to evacuate to New Zealand in the event of disaster, but maybe some of them are starting to realise that climate change will hit them wherever they are.
Technology
The race to create vegan alternatives to everything continues, with Impossible Foods amongst a number of companies working on creating vegan fish substitutes. This week also saw the announcement of a vegan whey-based ice cream, created from modified yeast. This really does feel like the future of food - as much as I’d like to imagine everyone shifting to a lentil-based diet, meat, fish and dairy alternatives are a way to shift people to eco-friendly diets without requiring massive lifestyle changes.
A solar device has been created that can create power and purify water at the same time. This could revolutionise power and water access for millions, with the device able to purify contaminated or even salt water using way less power than any current technology. This could help bring the world’s poorest into the 21st century without the reliance on fossil fuels, paving the way for more equality and less emissions.
An offshoot of BP is investigating double-sided solar panels, which can harvest up to 15% more energy. However, they need to be installed on a reflective surface, so they’re now trying to find the most reflective species of grass to maximise energy capture. I for one can’t wait for our new shiny lawns!
Power
There’ve been lots of exciting renewable energy announcements this week. Several huge solar projects are being built or expanded, with a 400MW solar and 800MWh battery installation planned in California, and a 10GW solar farm in Western Australia, that could end up powering 20% of Singapore through a new HVDC cable link. The prices of both solar and batteries are dropping so fast now that solar is looking like the sensible choice now - in Cali the costs of solar are lower than any non-renewable option.
Australia features again with a massive expansion to the Pilbara wind and solar project, which will grow to 15GW. For comparison, Australia’s current total large-scale wind and solar capacity is around 6GW, so this is 2.5x in a single project. This may be a turn-around for Australia, which currently exports huge amounts of LNG and coal, making it responsible for a significant proportion of the world’s CO2 emissions.
Wind Power is also ramping up, particularly in Europe, where the North Sea Wind Power Hub has passed technical feasibility studies. This could add between 70-150GW of capacity by 2040, powering countries across Western Europe. A recent study suggests that Europe has a theoretical wind capacity of over 10x its electricity usage - a figure which may help win over previously reluctant countries such as Poland, which still relies heavily on lignite (brown coal).
The Dutch have just finished their second major (760MW) zero-subsidy wind auction, for an offshore wind farm. This is interesting as not only is it not subsidised, but the winning bidder, Vattenfall, is actually paying €2 million/year for rights to build the wind farm. This shows just how far renewables have come.
It’s barely soon enough - new research shows that the energy ROI (EROI) of fossil fuels (how much energy you get out compared to the amount you spend mining, refining, etc.) is much lower than previously thought, and as reserves get harder to extract, that EROI is falling, fast. If it falls too low, we may end up with a huge energy shortfall as we can’t afford to extract fossil fuels. All the more reason to ramp up renewables ASAP!
Several of the world’s largest mining companies are divesting from coal. BHP announced they would move away from coal this week, following Rio Tinto and Anglo American’s similar moves.
EndGame
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Until next week,
Oli