Hello, and welcome to Forge the Future #11. I’m once again trying to focus in on a few key areas, so if there’s a story I missed this week, I do apologise - sadly it’s just not possible to cover everything in just one email, and much gets left on the cutting-room floor.
State of the Climate
This week, CO2 levels are at 410.97 ppm (last year’s levels were 407.55 ppm at the same time). It was confirmed this week by the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Programme that July was the hottest month ever recorded. 2015-2018 have been the four warmest years on record, and much of this year has been setting records as well. The BBC noted this week that the 10 warmest years on record in the UK all happened since 2002. They also made an interactive article allowing you to explore how temperatures will change in many cities around the world.
Visualisation of the Week
This chart from Exxon Mobile in 1982 shows how accurate the company’s Climate Change prediction was - in 2019 they predicted a CO2 level of 415ppm at a global temperature increase of 0.9°C - pretty much exactly what we’ve seen this year. For more on how much research Exxon put into Climate Change, I’d recommend InsideClimateNews’ Exxon: The Road Not Taken feature.
Climate Disasters
There’s been a lot of coverage of the huge melting in Greenland caused by the remnants of the European heatwave. Temperatures soared across the ice sheet, with an estimated 197 billion tons of ice having melted into the ocean since the 1st July - enough to raise global sea levels by 0.5mm. The Arctic peat fires continue to burn across Canada and Siberia - the Russian government has declared a state of emergency in four provinces and sent in the military to help extinguish fires across an area the size of Belgium. New research suggests that losing the remaining Arctic sea ice (and its ability to reflect sunlight back to space) would equate to around 25 years of global CO2 emissions.
Central America is struggling with massive drought - much of El Salvador and Guatemala is suffering from drought, caused by climate change combined with population growth and poor water management, and exacerbated by corruption and gang violence. Many are considering migration to escape the crisis, which will only put more pressure on surrounding countries. Zimbabwe continues to struggle with water shortages, with many in Harare only receiving tap water once a week.
Indonesia has declared an emergency in multiple provinces as huge forest fires rage across Sumatra and Borneo. Overall, the climate crisis is hitting hard, but whilst the record temperatures are finally starting to bring things home to those in Europe and the US, it continues to hit the world’s poorest people hardest.
Fossil Fuels
The price of renewables continues to plummet, with the LCOE (levelised cost of energy) of photovoltaic solar dropping in India to $38/MWh - that’s 14% cheaper than coal power. Solar cells have never been cheaper, and that’s causing fossil fuels to look less and less cost effective. At current oil prices, wind and solar produce 7 times more useful energy for cars than gasoline, dollar for dollar. In California, farmers are converting fallow land to solar farms, as it makes money and reduces pressure on the state’s already struggling water supplies.
Unfortunately, the oil industry still has a massive scale advantage over renewables, and receives significantly more subsidies ($370bn versus $100bn). New research suggests a 10-30% subsidy shift towards renewables would be enough to tip the balance firmly in favour of renewables, though that would require fighting against the significant vested interests of the fossil fuel industry. Large scale investors are still firmly vested in fossil fuels, although it’s starting to cost them dearly - BlackRock has lost $90bn investing in fossil fuels.
Already, however, coal is dying swiftly. Many major insurers won’t touch coal projects, and recently Poland, previously one of the bastions of coal power in Europe, blocked plans for their last new coal power plant. Lignite (brown coal), which fuels much of Germany and Poland’s coal plants, is now proving extremely unprofitable, with the German lignite fleet losing €664m so far this year, versus €68m in the first half of 2018. Another of the UK’s 5 remaining coal plants is shutting down ahead of schedule in 2020, with plant operators citing ‘market conditions’.
Electric Momentum
After a long period of little impact, electric vehicle production and sales are soaring, partly driven by plummeting battery prices, which are 1/5th of what they cost in 2010. China particularly has whole-heartedly leapt into electric vehicles, putting $60bn into direct and indirect EV subsidies between 2009 and 2018. The strategy has paid off, with Chinese EV sales surpassing the US in 2015. China also has 99% of the world’s electric bus fleet, with more than 385,000 buses on the road. India is also starting to make movements in this direction, this week sanctioning around 5,600 electric buses for use in 65 cities across the country.
EVs are also gaining popularity in Europe, with scandals like the ‘Dieselgate’ saga causing customers to question petrol and diesel cars and look for alternatives. Battery manufacture is also ramping up hugely in Europe, with production capacity set to increase from 18GWh today to 198GWh in around four years time, pushing the US into third place. Many of the main Chinese manufacturers, having hit limits in their home markets, are now also looking to expand into Europe, further boosting the supply.
Sniffing out and Reducing Emissions
We’re also making headway in identifying and reducing emissions in other ways. The rise of private space flight and tiny ‘cubesats’ is making high-resolution, up-to-date imagery of the entire planet available to everyone. This is allowing companies to identify the worst methane emitters with greater accuracy and lower cost than ever before. It could also help fill in the data gap around emissions - creating open datasets of emissions to help inform governments and policymakers.
Many of the climate models being used to check if we are on track to hit 1.5 or 2°C of warming assume the presence of large-scale negative emissions technology. It’s often viewed as a panacea, but the technology is still in very early stages, and the scale required is immense - we should be careful not to place too many eggs in that basket.
News highlights
Cambridge University became the first university to set climate targets, aiming to reduce scope 1 and 2 emissions by 75% by 2030.
Malawi has reinstated a ban on plastic bags, after judges overturned an injunction won by plastic manufacturers. The country could run out of fish entirely by 2050 should the country’s plastic problem not be dealt with. Globally, marine plastic plastic pollution has been estimated to cost $2.5tn/year.
China is ahead of its pledge to hit peak emissions by 2030 - the latest predictions indicate the country will peak between 2021 and 2025.
Several new suggestions for plants to absorb more CO2 have arose this week, including hemp and empress trees - both of which can sequester CO2 whilst providing useful materials.
The Indian state of Punjab has instituted a ‘guns for trees’ scheme - residents desiring a firearms licence must plant trees first, and take photos to prove it.
InterContinental Hotels Group is removing all small plastic toiletries from its 5600 hotels to reduce plastic use.
Marseille’s airport expansion plans have been blocked by the French Environmental Authority, which wants to revisit them in light of France’s recent carbon neutrality legislation.
Rod Schoonover, an intelligence analyst for the US State Department, has resigned after the White House reportedly blocked the submission of his report on the effect of Climate Change on national security.
The head of Brazil’s space research agency has been fired, after President Jair Bolsonaro disagreed with the agency’s latest deforestation figures.
EndGame
That’s it for this week. As always, if you enjoyed it, please do recommend it to others, and do subscribe if you aren’t already.
See you next week,
Oli