Meaningful policy, or just empty words - the role of government in Climate Change
Forge the Future #13
Hello, and welcome back to another Forge the Future. Thanks for all those who have just signed up recently - I hope you like what you read, and stick around - as well as those who’ve been here for longer. As always, if there’s any feedback you’d like to give me, or interesting stories you’d like to share, please do let me know!
Earlier in the week, I was imagining I’d spend this newsletter expanding upon the latest IPCC report on Climate Change and Land, but the Atlantic managed to summarise hundreds of pages of dense reportage far better than I could.
State of the Climate
This week, CO2 is at 410.42 ppm (versus last year’s level of 407.1 ppm at the same time). I know it must just feel like arbitrary numbers, but it is still one of the best metrics we have of how we’re doing on tackling Climate Change. I hope, in a years time, that I can show that growth in CO2 levels is at the very least slowing.
The melting of the Arctic continues to be a major story, with a new study (based on crowd-sourced transcriptions of early 20th century ship logs) showing just how rapid the recent melting is, even compared to previous reductions in ice levels. National Geographic dived into the complex topic of permafrost melting, which is likely to cause huge changes to the Northernmost latitudes of the world, and disrupt many communities’ way of life entirely. Iceland is also struggling to adapt to rising temperatures, with fishing fleets stranded by rising land levels (as glaciers melt, the land ‘bounces’ back, causing harbours to become shallower). Many of Iceland’s key industries are either polluting or heavily affected by rising temperatures, so much change lies ahead for the nation.
There have also been several studies released this week highlighting the pervasiveness of plastic microparticles. A study of snow from across Europe and the Arctic found more than 10,000 particles per litre, and another of rainwater in the Rockies found microplastics in samples originally captured to study nitrogen levels. Finally, research on tree pests in the US has found that around 40% of the forest mass in the US is threatened by around 450 species of pests introduced by travel and trade with other countries, from Dutch Elm Disease to funguses killing chestnuts.
Visualisation of the Week
This week’s visualisation comes from Zack Labe, who has made a series of excellent visualisations of Arctic and Greenland ice levels, both over the past couple of decades as well as longer term.
Is it all just talk?
This week, I wanted to focus on the role of government in tackling Climate Change. Ultimately, it needs to be tackled by individuals, business and government all at once, but government holds the biggest levers, although it is often slow to act. Recently, there has been a relative flood of climate-positive policy, with more and more countries signing up to net-zero declarations of various kinds. However, it increasingly appears as though these declarations are words only, and in many cases have yet to be backed up by concrete actions.
Australia particularly has come under fire, as it was highlighted that they are the third largest exporter of fossil fuels (behind Russia and Saudi Arabia), contributing to the rise in seaborne coal, despite the fuel looking less and less viable economically. The Adani Carmichael mine has been a hotbed of controversy in recent times, and the Adani company has a less than stellar record in its native country of India as well.
Speaking of India, despite putting in emissions standards for coal plants 4 years ago, and passing the deadlines for meeting those standards 2 years ago, almost all plants have done nothing. The deadlines were pushed back, and plants continue to push back, and the government fails to enforce the standards. The result? An estimated 26,000 premature deaths per year from air pollution.
There are positive signs, such as the moves towards electric rickshaws in Uttar Pradesh, although the real innovation is being performed by private organisations such as SMW Green Solutions, which offers loan solutions to let drivers buy the new vehicles when banks and other official institutions won’t loan the money.
Pacific Island nations are up in arms about the selfishness of the developed world, with Fiji calling the way the IPCC had to set aside its 1.5C report as ‘grossly irresponsible’. Fiji has just unveiled an ambitious plan to hit net-zero emissions by 2050, whilst reducing plastics usage, alongside a carbon credit scheme and a program to relocate communities at risk from Climate Change-induced effects. The former president of Kiribati called for Australia’s membership of the Pacific Islands Forum to be reviewed in light of its pro-coal stance.
Meanwhile, in the US, despite Trump’s repeated roll-backs of environmental protections and lobbying for the coal industry, coal continues to collapse, causing coal miners to turn to the Green New Deal for new ideas. Only this week, a new study linked a rise in atmospheric methane, previously attributed to cattle, to shale fracking, another technology beloved of the current administration. Across North America, the environment is becoming a partisan issue, with charities in Canada warned that discussing Climate Change would require them to register as third parties to the election - an expensive bureaucratic overhead for simply raising awareness of a global issue.
There are some signs of hope - California is actively moving in the right direction, and is in many ways a beacon for how things can be - its emissions are well below its 2020 targets despite the economy growing by 3.6%. Seattle looks to be trying to follow in its footsteps, passing a Green New Deal of its own, not long after New York passed a similar measure.
So what can we do? Demonstrating that we care is always important - government does, by and large, follow the wishes of their electorate - so activism and protests should continue. However, I think business and enterprise also needs to step up, and show what can be done. It’s encouraging to see SoftBank’s $100 million investment in the Swiss energy storage company Energy Vault, but looking at Silicon Valley, it’s hard not to feel that all these bright minds could be doing more than making more efficient ways to sell us advertising. We can, and should be doing more.
News Highlights
Chevron has finally opened its Carbon sequestration plant at the Gorgon gas plant. It’s two years behind schedule, but should sequester up to 4 million tons of CO2 per year, which will reduce the plant’s carbon footprint by around 40%.
The world’s largest electric ferry has just completed its maiden voyage. The ferry covers a 22 mile route, and can carry 30 vehicles and 200 passengers on each journey.
The first major solar road project, in Normandy, has been declared a failure, after generating less than half the expected power, and suffering serious damage after only a couple of years.
A team in Australia is trying to scale up production of a seaweed found to massively reduce cows’ methane emissions. If every cow in Australia was fed the seaweed, it would reduce the country’s emissions by 10%.
There is enough capacity for on-shore wind in Europe to power the rest of the world for the next 30 years, although currently only 1% of that capacity is being utilised. On a similar theme, a US Department of Energy report shows that wind is now cheaper than natural gas in the US.
Increased computing power and better modelling is enabling climate researchers to better determine whether a given weather event can be attributed to Climate Change.
Stripe, the US-based payments provider, have pledged a minimum of $1 million/year to negative emissions, with the aim of funding development of carbon negative technologies and enabling economies of scale.
Tesla’s new Semi has surpassed range expectations during testing - impressive for a vehicle that offers up to a 600 mile range.
Greta Thunberg has set off to New York on a solar-powered racing boat. The team have a live tracker here.
The Trump administration is rolling back elements of the Endangered Species Act, reducing protections for many vulnerable creatures.
That’s all I have for you - if you made it this far, thanks for reading!
Until next week,
Oli