Plastic Fantastic
Forge the Future #45 - Oil & Gas companies never hesitate to exploit a crisis
Welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly guide to all things climate.
Another week, and more chaos as we attempt to adapt to this new and scary world. The UK this week made the sensible decision to postpone the COP 26 UN climate summit to next year, amidst the ever increasing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. A number of leading scientists this week urged the world to tackle climate change and poverty with the same zeal as the current disaster.
You may have spotted an interesting site this week announcing Google’s withdrawal of funding to climate denial think tanks. Sadly, whilst Google may have sworn off April Fools this year, XR New York did not, and were behind the page. I will admit it fooled me too - given the barrage of bad news, I really wanted this one to be true!
State of the Climate
CO2 levels this week: 415.74 ppm
This time last year: 412.39 ppm
China’s Sichuan province is battling massive wildfires that have so far burned 1000 hectares, and killed 19 this week. The fires are being assisted by a spate of abnormally dry, warm weather in the region. Meanwhile, a category 4 cyclone has hit the island of Vanuatu, throwing efforts to socially distance to the wind as residents were forced to pack into storm shelters. This is perhaps the first major disaster to strike during the pandemic, but it is unlikely to be the last, and the combination could be catastrophic.
On a more positive note, a ‘debt for nature’ deal has resulted in the Seychelles extending protection of marine areas to around 30% of its waters - some 400,000 sq km. Managing the huge area will be a challenge for the nation, but it’s a massive step up from the 0.2% of its territory that was protected only 8 years ago. In related news, scientists have suggested that there is now the knowledge to restore the oceans by 2050, although the cost would be immense. However, they warn that the side effects of climate change, such as ocean acidification and loss of oxygen mean that the effort cannot happen without serious climate action.
New research has found evidence that fish migrate through the deep ocean. Though it has been suspected for some time, the extreme conditions have made gathering data very difficult. It once again highlights how little is known our oceans - a recent expedition found this incredible siphonophore - the largest of its kind ever recorded, and seemingly showing novel behaviour.
Visualisation of the Week
Preliminary results from the NOAA suggest methane levels rose markedly last year, although it’s not yet clear why.
There may be a crisis on, but far be it for the oil and gas industry to slow down. Indeed, they’ve been making the most of the crisis in almost every way they can, from getting the EPA to suspend enforcement of environmental regulations, to pushing for ‘critical infrastructure’ bills to protect pipelines from protests. Jamie Henn did an excellent rundown of the many facets of their activities in the last few weeks, and it’s pretty damning.
I’ve mentioned in previous weeks a feeling of conflict over continuing to focus on the environment in these newsletters, when there is a much more pressing situation developing all around us, and it’s a sentiment I’ve seen amongst other climate-focused folks. However, this is one of the fundamentals of this fight - the other side aren’t playing fair, in this crisis or any other.
A number of stories have come to light over the past year of the oil industry being well aware of climate change back in the 70s, and doubling down on anti-climate change misinformation. Now, it seems it’s the plastic industry’s turn in the spotlight, as NPR uncovered that they also knew back in the 70s that recycling was never going to be a viable strategy for most plastics. However, they needed a way to fend off regulations, so promoted recycling as the magic solution to all their waste issues, alongside efforts like the ‘Keep America Beautiful’ campaign - which pushed the burden for dealing with waste from producers to consumers.
The result? A situation where major drinks companies produce immense quantities of plastic that cannot be recycled. A recent report looked at plastic waste in the developing world (where less sophisticated recycling systems mean that plastic is often burned or dumped) and found some pretty shocking results. Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Nestlé and Unilever together produce more than half a million tons of plastic pollution a year across six developing countries - enough to cover 83 football pitches to 10cm deep, per day.
My point with this is simple - we cannot trust these companies to clean up on their own. They’ve shown time and again that they will always prioritise profit over the planet, and will go to extreme lengths to avoid responsibility. We must maintain the pressure, because even if we don’t want to exploit a crisis, they will.
News Highlights
US vs the Climate
Oil prices have dropped below $10/barrel at key North American hubs, with some crude streams going negative. Trump had an in-person meeting with oil execs at the White House last week, and has fueled suggestions of an unprecedented global agreement to cut oil production and prevent further price drops. The overall outcome for the environment remains extremely uncertain.
The already struggling US coal industry has now been hit further by the current pandemic, with Moody’s warning of a potential wave of bankruptcies amongst coal companies in the US.
Renewables have beaten coal in the US for electricity generation on a quarterly basis, for the first time ever, and the trend is likely to continue for the next few months.
Members of Congress pushing the administration to waive the oil and gas industry’s royalty payments have collectively received more than $35m from the industry through their careers.
The US solar industry is now forecasting a massive fall in demand as consumers grow reticent in the face of the current crisis.
Not directly US, but related - Canada is now facing a decision as to whether to weaken its own emissions rules in light of the recent US change, or stick to existing stricter regulations.
Other News
Nearly 1 in 5 of Australia’s largest polluters have breached official emissions limits, and virtually all of the additional emissions went unpenalised.
Japan has released its updated NDCs for the Paris agreement, which unfortunately have little to no extra commitments over previous efforts. This sets a poor precedent for other major nations yet to announce, such as China and India.
Europe’s emissions are expected to drop 15% this year, accelerated by the pandemic, versus the 6% fall last year.
Aviation emissions are now predicted to fall by 38% in 2020, with Australia’s aviation emissions potentially dropping by over half.
China is facing a growing waste problem, as the societal change from the current pandemic increases non-recyclable waste, and halts its burgeoning recycling efforts. Similar effects are likely to occur across the world as the pandemic spreads.
Indonesia and the Philippines have quietly revived plans for nuclear energy, amidst rising energy demand, and a strong backlash against coal power.
UK electricity prices went negative during the daytime for the first time ever, as soaring renewable energy coincided with reduced energy demand during the current lock-down.
Long Reads
The interesting tale of the unlikely symbiosis between Florida’s Manatees and the warm water outflows of the state’s coal power plants
A dive into the often hidden (and vast) water usage of data centres, which especially in drier areas comes into conflict with residential or other uses.
The Guardian contemplates what the world will look like after the current pandemic subsides. Will we embrace a new, fairer world, or exacerbate existing inequalities?
The End Times
That’s all I have for you this week. As always, thanks for reading, and if you’ve any feedback or suggestions for me, I’d love to hear them (you can reach me at oli@forgethefuture.com). If you feel like sharing this, I’d massively appreciate it!
Stay safe, and see you next week,
Oli