Welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly guide to all things climate. The Twitter saga continues - Twitter has now decided against banning political issue ads after the huge backlash, which does mean climate ads can go ahead, but also means Big Oil can still greenwash to their heart’s content as well. Greta Thunberg is on her way back across the Atlantic to attend COP25 in Madrid, after leaving the US with a simple message: ‘vote’.
State of the Climate
CO2 levels this week: 410.25 ppm
This time last year: 408.91 ppm
Venice has been hit by the heaviest flooding in 50 years, leaving more than 85% of the city underwater. In an ironic turn, the council chamber was flooded mere minutes after the right wing council rejected a series of measures designed to combat climate change. The mayor has declared a state of emergency after two were killed by the floodwaters. Schemes to protect the city from high tides have been under way for decades, but are still not complete, after being plagued by corruption and bureaucracy.
The US has been experiencing an early winter after a blast of cold air broke temperature records across the country. Florida and Alabama both dipped below freezing, and parts of New York, Maine and Michigan were left under a foot of snow - unusual this early in the winter. South of the equator, the latest figures for annual deforestation are in from the Amazon, and almost 10,000 sq km were lost in the year to August - the highest level in a decade.
More evidence is coming in about insect loss - a UK study suggests 40% of the 1 million known insect species face extinction, thanks to pesticides, with knock-on consequences for virtually all species.
In a rare piece of good news, a species of mouse deer not seen for 30 years was captured on camera in Vietnam. The find comes after an extensive search and collaboration with locals, but raises hope that other species thought lost might still be clinging on. The challenge now is to protect them from further threats.
Visualisation of the Week
This week’s visualisation comes from The Lancet’s annual report on climate change and human health, and shows the shift in vectorial capacity of two key mosquito species responsible for diseases such as dengue fever (which is increasing rapidly year on year).
The Future of Energy
This week saw the release of the IEA’s annual World Energy Outlook. They’ve released a few teasers in the past few weeks (see previous issues for some of findings on the potential for offshore wind, amongst others), but this is the full shebang: 810 pages of the future of energy. As always, Dr Simon Evans of CarbonBrief has dug through and written up a thorough analysis of the full report. The IEA has come under fire in previous years for under-estimating renewables growth, particularly solar, and this year is no exception - they predict a sudden leveling off of solar capacity in the coming years, which seems unlikely!
Leaving that aside, the report does offer many interesting insights into the potential future of global energy. One of the biggest points is that whilst renewables are growing fast, so is global energy demand, and renewables are largely just chipping into the new demand, rather than removing existing fossil fuel capacity. We need another step-change in the scale of renewables for them to really start having an impact on emissions. Transportation in particular is a huge unknown - it continues to rise year on year, and gains from the slow rise of EVs are being wiped out by the increase in SUV sales, which are the second largest source of new CO2 emissions.
Another big point that comes out of all of these big global-scale reports is the scale of the transition we need to make. The IEA looked at 3 scenarios - current policies, stated policies, and a sustainable development track. Only the last would put the world on track to keep within 1.5°C of warming, and would require an estimated $16.7tn of spending on energy efficiency alone by 2040, alongside $650bn/year in spending on renewables over the next decade. If we do make it, this will quite possibly be the most dramatic global shift ever seen. Let’s hope we can pull it off in time.
News Highlights
US vs the Climate
60% of Superfund sites (essentially hazardous waste sites) in the US are under threat from wildfires, floods or hurricanes, according to a new study by the GAO. The EPA denies that there is a problem and has no plans for dealing with climate risk under its current 5 year plan.
The EPA’s internal watchdog has rebuked its chief of staff for refusing to cooperate with several investigations, including one into whether he pressured a scientist to alter her congressional testimony. Ryan Jackson has refused to meet with investigators or acknowledge the investigations. The matter has been referred to Congress.
The Trump administration has suspended production of oil and gas on 130 plots of land in Utah, and decided that it needs to conduct a more thorough environmental impact analysis, after environmentalists brought a legal challenge.
New EPA regulations tackling toxic chemical emissions have been produced, but exemptions mean that many existing plants are not covered, and planned plants will produce almost as much as would be reduced by the regulations.
Two of the largest coal plants in the US shut this month - the Navajo Generating Station (2.25GW) and Bruce Mansfield unit (2.7GW) both shut for economic reasons.
A US program started to fund innovative multi-modal transport initiatives has been converted into another road-building program under Trump - mass transit and rail funding have been cut heavily, pedestrian and bike funding zeroed, and 68% of the 2019 budget went to road projects.
The Standing Rock Sioux are fighting pipelines again, this time the Dakota Access Pipeline. The owners are applying to nearly double the flow of oil through the pipeline, which the tribe say increases risk of spills and danger to their water supply.
Other News
The EU is to stop funding oil, gas and coal projects at the end of 2021 (a year later than originally planned), cutting €2bn of annual investments. New projects wanting funding must produce power with less than 250g CO2 per kWh.
Climate Change may have resulted in an increase in wind speeds over the past 10 years. The increase may boost energy gains from wind farms by more than a third by 2024.
The Dutch government is cutting speed limits to 100km/h to lower air pollution.
Methane emissions from coal mines could equal those from aviation and shipping combined. The effect has been overlooked until recently, but looks to be a significant contributor to global methane emissions.
Britain is likely to miss many of its 2020 climate goals, with progress hamstrung by repeated budget cuts.
The Lancet has published a report highlighting the effect that climate change will have on children’s health - they will be heavily affected by a myriad of effects, from air pollution to mental health.
The Swedish central bank has sold off bonds from Western Australia, Queensland and Alberta, saying that it will no longer invest in assets from issuers with a high climate footprint, regardless of the yields.
Fukushima is planning to transform itself into a renewable energy hub, with 600MW of new renewable energy projects planned. This fits into the prefecture’s plan for 100% renewable energy supply by 2040.
An investigation has found that close to 10,000 homes in the UK are planned to be built on high-risk floodplains in the UK. The finding comes as thousands are affected by heavy flooding in the North of the country.
Long Reads
A dive into California’s cap-and-trade system, which whilst held in high esteem, suffers from many of the problems that have beset other such cap-and-trade schemes.
I’ve raised David Bernhardt’s close relationship to his former lobbying customers before - the NYT looks into how he’s pushing the Interior Department’s ethics committee to its limit.
Grist takes a look at the various types of gravitational energy storage, from pumped hydro to lifting sand up mountains.
The End Times
That’s all I have for you this week. As always, thank you for reading, and give yourself a pat on the back if you made it all the way to the end! If you’ve any feedback or suggestions for me, I’d love to hear them, and if you feel like sharing this, I’d massively appreciate it! See you next week,
Oli