Hello, and welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly slice of all things climate. This week has been a momentous one in the UK, as the government has finally banned fracking, a major u-turn on their previous positioning. Whilst it may be partially electioneering on the part of the incumbent Conservative government in the run up to the December elections, a ban is a ban, and to be celebrated. However, the week also saw the announcement that the UK is the largest net exporter of CO2 emissions per capita in the G7. Much has been made of the UK’s decarbonisation, with CO2 emissions dropping significantly despite economic growth. It now appears that much of that has simply been exported to developing countries.
State of the Climate
CO2 levels this week: 409.32 ppm
This time last year: 406.43 ppm
Much of Northern India has been hit by extremely heavy air pollution, with flights diverted and schools closed. The pollution is an annual occurrence, when farmers burn the crop stubble to clear their fields, amplified by fireworks from the Diwali festival. The pollution is so high that many of the pollution meters have run out of digits, simply displaying ‘999’. A study looking at the effects of minimal reductions in emissions (the RCP 8.5 scenario, for those in the know) estimates that 1.5 million Indians could die per year by 2100. In that scenario, 16 of the 36 Indian states would have average temperatures higher than Punjab, the current hottest state in summer.
The area burned by forest fires in Indonesia in 2019 is now officially higher than 2018, despite the year not being over. 857,756 hectares were burned by the end of September, versus 529,267 last year.
In Europe, studies continue to confirm that insects and spiders are in massive decline. The latest study showed that numbers are declining not only in farmed areas, but in protected sites. The decline is linked to intensive agriculture, pesticide usage, as well as the changing climate.
Visualisation of the Week
This week’s visualisation comes from a long-form CarbonBrief article on India’s slowing emissions growth. It shows how Indian electricity growth has grown slower than expected, meaning that renewables have been able to accomodate most of the new demand.
Feeling Green
This week I want to talk about greenwashing. I’m in the process of starting a climate-related business, and was asked recently, ‘would you ever take money from fossil fuel companies?’. It’s a relevant question, as more and more of them are funding research into alternative energy and supporting environmental causes in some fashion. It’s also a topic which has come up increasingly in the news, as fossil fuel companies are put under the spotlight, and are trying to find ways to justify their future in a world that is increasingly turning against the products they create.
What do I mean by greenwashing? Greenwashing is a term for making a pretense at caring about environmental matters, whilst not changing your core business model. An example might be BP’s CEO recently stating that there is an ‘80 percent overlap’ between BP’s ambitions and those of Extinction Rebellion. On the face of it, it sounds grand, but BP has been lobbying for rollbacks of methane regulations, whilst publicly claiming they supported such regulations. Another might be Google, who actively promote their net-zero emissions, but keep quiet about working with oil companies, or funding climate deniers.
Ultimately, these firms cannot be trusted. I’ve talked in previous weeks about how Exxon Mobil actively promoted disinformation to delay action on climate change, despite its own scientists predicting with remarkable accuracy what would happen if we did nothing. They care about their bottom line - see the coal companies in Texas, shown to cut corners when putting back land after strip mining, leaving vast areas contaminated with heavy metals. The same coal companies are hemorrhaging money, and when (not if) they go bankrupt, they happily default on their obligations to the workers that have supported them for decades.
Most oil companies need to cut output by between 10-85% to avoid catastrophic climate change, and yet most are increasing production. Kuwait is the only member of OPEC to acknowledge that its production may have to fall as a result of climate risks - Saudi Aramco is currently planning to float on the stock market, potentially becoming the world’s biggest public company (and the world’s biggest polluter).
I’d like to believe these companies when they say that they’re changing. They have huge influence and power, and having them on our side would make the coming years so much easier. However, in our profit-orientated world, the bottom line is all that counts, and these companies only know how to make money from one thing - fossil fuels. So my answer to the question - would I take money from fossil fuel companies? No.
News Highlights
US versus the Climate
GM, Fiat Chrysler and Toyota have sided with the Trump administration in the battle versus California over emissions regulations. This adds more complexity and nuance to the ever-evolving battle between the state and the administration over climate matters.
It’s not just PG&E that’s caused wildfires in California - now Southern California Edison has said it was likely responsible for the Woolsey Fire last year, which destroyed 1600 structures and killed 3.
A loophole in the law has allowed major fossil fuel companies, including Chevron, BP, Shell and Exxon Mobil, to claim $18 billion in revenue that was intended to be paid to the government. The law was meant to encourage drilling in the Gulf of Mexico, and put a break on royalties whilst the oil price was low. Unfortunately, it was never properly tied to oil prices, and now firms have been raking in extra revenue for the last 23 years.
The Trump administration is expected to roll back an Obama-era regulation meant to limit leaching of heavy metals from coal ash dumps into groundwater. The law has already been delayed by Trump’s first EPA administrator, and now looks to be heavily watered down, with requirements relaxed, and a large number of coal plants exempted entirely.
The Keystone pipeline has been shut down after a 1.4 million litre spill in North Dakota. It’s one of the biggest onshore crude spills in the last decade, and comes amid large regulatory and environmental hurdles for the new Keystone XL pipeline.
Other News
The vehicle industry is electrifying apace now - Honda has accelerated its schedules and is stopping production of petrol- and diesel-only cars in Europe by 2022. Daimler has ditched its LNG-powered truck plans in favour of more electric and hydrogen vehicles, and aims to have electric trucks in production by 2022.
China, the EU, India and other countries are coming together to define rules and standards for green investment, to help the flow of private capital into projects tackling climate change.
China has released its official figures for ocean waste for 2018, and the news is not good - waste rose 27% to the highest level in at least a decade. China is currently embarking on a massive cleanup operation to try and clear its waterways and coastlines.
A group of 11,000 scientists have endorsed research that shows that the world is facing a climate emergency. The researchers say they have a moral obligation to warn of the threat.
New research suggests that polystyrene, long thought to last for thousands of years in the environment, may break down under sunlight in decades into CO2 and organic carbon. Whilst good news, it doesn’t alleviate the need to tackle our plastic waste.
Greta Thunberg was offered an environmental award by the Nordic Council, but has declined it, saying that ‘the climate movement does not need more awards’.
Whilst not directly environmental, Twitter has banned all political and issue advertising on its platform. Whilst this mostly affects political ads, climate change is covered, which means no more anti-climate change advertising (I’m looking at you, Exxon Mobil).
Long Reads
Grist have published a series of articles about Texas’ lax approach to making coal mining companies clean up after themselves. The results? Thousands of acres of potentially contaminated land.
An analysis from CarbonBrief on why India’s emissions growth has slowed this year, and the wider implications for the future of Indian electricity generation.
London Climate charity 10:10 has rebranded as Possible, and come up with 10 inspiring key ideas to tackle climate change in the UK.
A deep dive into where Amazon Basics batteries come from, and the environmentally lax supply chains hiding behind such own-brand products.
End Times
That’s everything for this week - as always, thanks for reading, and well done if you made it this far! If you feel like sharing it, please do, I’m always grateful! If you have any thoughts or comments, or want to send me interesting stories for a future edition, please do reach out! See you next week,
Oli