The Difficulties of Debate
Forge the Future #59 - The winds of change, rising temperatures, and the complexities of debate
Welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly guide to all things climate.
As I alluded to in last week’s newsletter, I’ve been thinking a lot about the future of this newsletter. The long and the short of it is that I’m going to be making some changes around here, hopefully for the better! Rather than distract from this week’s newsletter, I’ll be sending out a post towards the end of this week explaining how things are changing, and why. Now, back to the news!
In this week’s corporate sustainability news, Brewdog, the sometimes controversial Scottish brewery, have announced a sweeping sustainability drive, including switching to wind energy, recycling their used grain, and moving to EVs for beer deliveries. Good stuff! Amazon Air, the aviation wing of the retail giant (who will soon have over 80 aircraft!) will be purchasing up to 6m gallons of sustainable aviation fuel. The direct impact is not massive, but it will help push much needed money into the development of more sustainable aviation fuels, a sector that is currently far behind where it needs to be.
State of the Climate
CO2 levels this week: 413.92 ppm
This time last year: 412.55 ppm
The big news this week came in the form of a WMO prediction that says temperatures have a 20% chance of exceeding 1.5°C in at least one of the next five years. CarbonBrief went into more depth on the forecasts, looking at whether it means we’ve breached the Paris Agreement 1.5°C threshold (technically no, but we’re pretty close), as well as why we should continue to act.
Forecasters in the US have raised the expected number of named storms in this year’s Atlantic storm season to 20, which would make this year the most active since 2005. The US is also in the midst of a major heat wave sweeping coast-to-coast. Record temperatures have already been seen in California and Arizona, with more of the same expected across the south of the country throughout this week.
In slightly more positive news, a new study evaluated the potential of enhanced weathering for the first time, and found that it could remove up to 2bn tons of CO2 a year, at a cost of $60-200 a ton. It’s not the cheapest measure, but one that could become crucial in the coming years.
A final, lighter note - wild bison are to be reintroduced to the UK for the first time in 6000 years. A small herd will be released in Kent in 2022, hopefully helping to maintain and restore a former pine tree plantation.
It’s not a new dynamic by any means, but it feels very hard to have constructive debates about many topics these days, including the climate. I was struck by this again when I read Emily Atkin’s coverage of a debate she moderated between Jamie Margolin of Zero Hour and John Kasich, the Republican former governor of Ohio. Though entered into in good faith, it quickly fell apart when the governor couldn’t even agree on the basic facts of climate change.
The increasing tendency of one or more parties in a debate to deny facts or denigrate experts combines with a tendency towards polarisation and tribalism that means it’s so hard to achieve consensus. Everything is political, and swiftly descends into an us versus them mud-slinging contest. This dynamic has always been present to some degree, but perhaps enhanced by social media and other changing forces, it has completely dominated the conversation now.
There are a lot of very big debates that need to be had about the direction to take going forward - how do we prepare our grid for mass renewables, how do we accelerate the transition to EVs, how do we ensure the most vulnerable communities are protected from climate impacts… the list goes on. Unfortunately, in the current climate, even mentioning climate change immediately places us on one side of a pitched turf war where facts are fluid and consensus is a far-off pipe dream.
This is another case where I don’t have a clear answer. The causes of our current toxic political environment are many and varied, and I’d be falling into the same reductivist trap to just point a finger and say ‘it’s this’ or ‘it’s that’. However, it’s undoubtedly slowing progress on many fronts, including on the climate. Pulling politics out of the mud benefits everyone bar those who enjoy mud wrestling.
News Highlights
US vs the Climate
Joe Biden has unveiled a new $2tn clean energy and infrastructure plan, with a 100% clean energy standard by 2035. Biden faces a tough balance between pleasing environmentalists and keeping key swing states happy, but runs the risk of alienating both.
The House of Representatives passed a $1.5tn infrastructure bill last Wednesday, that included a number of measures around carbon reduction and climate. However, the Senate and the White House are already up in arms, so it may not make it through unscathed.
Virginia has become the 11th state to join the RGGI carbon cap-and-trade scheme.
NYC’s subway system is facing a chronic lack of revenue due to low passenger numbers, and could lose half of its lines without massive aid from the federal government, leaving much of the city without viable public transit.
The Movement for Black Lives has released a new legislative proposal called the BREATHE Act, that alongside calling for defunding of police and better community justice, also focuses on environmental justice, calling for clear plans for clean air and water, as well as zero emission energy.
Other News
A study by Oxford Economics suggests that global GDP could fall by 20% by 2100 due to higher temperatures, with countries above 15°C bearing the brunt - India could lose 90% of its GDP if current global policies don’t change.
South Korea has unveiled a 42.7tn won ($35bn) plan focusing on renewable energy and environmentally friendly infrastructure, but has stopped short of declaring a net zero target date.
France’s top administrative court has ordered that the French state to be fined €10m every six months if it fails to fix excessive air pollution in eight areas across the country.
Japan has put in a plastic bag charge across the country, in an effort to stem the country’s rising tide of plastic waste.
A new report from CARE International highlights that women will bear the brunt of climate effects, which will likely exacerbate existing inequalities, particularly in groups displaced by climate change.
Norilsk Nickel, the company behind the huge Arctic diesel spill in May, has reported another Arctic spill, this time of aviation fuel. The news comes as the company disputes the $2.1bn damage estimate of the original spill from a Russian environmental watchdog.
A study in the US has shown that purchases of plant-based meat went up 23% when the products were placed in the meat isle rather than in a separate section of stores.
A new firm from an ex-Nissan battery pioneer plans to make polymer batteries - a technology that is not only safer than li-ion but potentially vastly easier to manufacture, reducing costs as much as 90%.
Long Reads
A look at the constantly changing lives of the Inupiat, a tribe from Utqiagvik in northern Alaska, who are some of those most exposed to the effects of global warming.
Grist looks at the LGBTQ adventurers working to make the outdoors more inclusive, much as the Black in Nature movement has been doing for non-white folks.
CarbonBrief looks at the various types of ‘discourses of delay’ - arguments that are used to slow or halt action on the climate.
An interesting NYT opinion piece looks at what it might look like if Manhattan banned private cars and gave the streets back to other modes of transport.
The End Times
That’s all I have for you this week. As always, thanks for reading, and if you’ve any feedback or suggestions for me, I’d love to hear them (you can reach me at oli@forgethefuture.com). If you feel like sharing this, I’d massively appreciate it!
See you next week,
Oli