Hello again, another Wednesday, and another edition of FtF! We’re now on the other side of the Global Climate Strike, and after two successive Fridays of striking, initial estimates put the total attendance at over 6 million. More than 3.5% of the population joined in NZ (often hailed as a tipping point for major change), and protests also occurred in places like Russia, where a lack of permission to demonstrate meant protestors had to take turns striking individually. Climate Change was briefly more popular than Game of Thrones, according to Google’s search volumes!
In the wake of the increased awareness of the climate movement and its current figurehead, a number of conservative figureheads have started launching increasingly aggressive attacks against Greta Thunberg. I have to wonder whether these people have such vitriol for, say, David Attenborough, who also called out world leaders recently.
State of the Climate
This week’s CO2 levels are 408.32 ppm, up from 405.63 ppm this time last year. There’s been significant flooding due to heavier than usual late monsoon rains in Northern India, which has killed over a hundred people. Meanwhile, a quarter of a million cubic metres of glacial ice is likely to collapse from a glacier near Mont Blanc, accelerated by climate change, and a new study has shown that nearly 60% of Europe’s native tree species are at risk of extinction.
In more directly polluting news, the new IMO regulations aimed at cutting shipping emissions have apparently already back-fired. The regulations allow the use of exhaust scrubbers to remove sulphur from the engine emissions, but over 99% of the nearly 4000 fitted so far are ‘open loop’ systems, which simply dump the sulphur into seawater - each ship can produce up to 45 tons of contaminated water for each ton of fuel burned.
More people have now had a chance to digest the latest IPCC report on the oceans and cryosphere, which dropped just before last week’s newsletter. Unfortunately, the news ain’t good - the amount of ice lost annually from Antarctica tripled between 2007 and 2016 versus the previous ten years, and Greenland’s ice losses doubled in the same period. This means that sea rises by 2100 could be up to 1.1m, putting a huge amount of the world’s population at risk. Declines in ocean health are projected to cost the global economy $428 bn by 2050, and $1.979 tn by 2100. As always, Carbon Brief have published a very thorough breakdown of the 400-odd pages of the report, which is worth reading if you have the time.
Visualisation of the Week
This week’s visualisation is a little different. It comes from the news that US lobbyists for the auto and fossil fuel industries have been named the most effective at blocking action on Climate Change, and depicts the impact on emissions of each of five major pieces of legislation, along with who lobbied for it.
This is not a drill
I’ve been pondering the rate of change a fair bit this week. With all the recent attention on the climate, and pledges (albeit weak) right, left and centre, it seems like the world is starting to move. However, the sheer scale of the problem is really starting to show itself. For example, although renewable generation is growing at a huge pace, we haven’t actually decreased the amount of any fossil fuel being used globally - the renewables have simply taken up the increased demand. To transition away from fossil fuels, we need to scale up yet again. We see this in news from China, which is aiming to shut 8.7GW of coal power by the end of the year, and the share of coal has gone from 68% in 2012 to 59% last year. However, the country has over 200GW of planned coal capacity, and the China Electricity Council estimates that the country will peak at 1300GW of coal - 300GW over the current coal capacity.
A report from the US Energy Information Administration this week attempted to project out energy consumption through to 2050. Whilst such predictions invariably miss the mark, they are good for showing general trends. Right now, the trends are all up - global energy consumption could rise by up to 50%, as increased energy intensity is outweighed by growth in GDP and population. It’s hard to see how we can meet 150% of current energy demands from renewables, that currently sit in the low single digits.
In a similar vein, the cost of hitting the UK’s 2050 net-zero emissions target was estimated at up to £20bn per year, with enormous amounts of negative emissions technologies (which barely exist today) required to make up for aviation, agriculture and heavy industry. Former US Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz suggested that the carbon removal industry might need to become twice the size of the current fossil fuel industry today - a simply staggering scale. How do we build something this big, this fast?
We need to move, and fast. We have solutions, for the most part, but we need to roll them out faster than might ever have been done before. And of course, we all need to take more responsibility for our own actions. That doesn’t mean we all need to immediately become vegan and stop flying, but if you’re one of the 1% of UK citizens who are taking 20% of all international flights out of the country, maybe consider taking the train once in a while? The Global Climate Strike showed that a lot of people around the world care. It’s easy to rest on our collective laurels after such a demonstration, but if anything we need to double down - to keep up the pressure: on governments; on companies; as well as keeping each other accountable.
We can’t let lobbyists dominate policy discussions in Washington and elsewhere. We can’t let the banks offload climate risks onto government-backed institutions. When companies commit to environmental targets, as they did at the recent UN Summit, we should applaud them, absolutely. But we should hold them accountable, and not let them take all the glory then shirk the responsibility of actually following through on those goals.
News Highlights
Trump vs the Environment
The California battle continues - the EPA is now accusing the state of violating Clean Water and Clean Air regulations, citing homelessness in particular, and is threatening to withhold federal funding. California is far from the worst offender when it comes to water quality, so this is feeling more and more personal.
The Shasta Dam (also in Cali) is being increased in height. The Interior Dep’t blocked it for years on environmental grounds, until the recent turnaround, after the chief lobbyist for the dam’s proponents became Interior Secretary. Convenient…
US coal generation may’ve fallen 6% last year, but SO2 and NOx emissions did not. 9 of the top 10 emitters of SO2 emitted more than previously, in one case by more than 50%.
Other News
The EU is facing criticism for putting off deciding what constitutes ‘green’ in the finance world until 2022, leaving the $200 bn green bond market in a state of uncertainty.
Greece and Hungary are to phase out all coal-fired power generation by 2030. Greece is the only country in SE Europe to have committed to a coal phase-out.
The UK government unveiled a £1.2bn funding boost to tackle Climate Change. However, given the current state of UK politics, take everything with a pinch of salt - everything is in chaos and liable to change at a moment’s notice.
The UK generated less than 1% of its power in Q2 this year from coal. Over 50% was generated from a mix of nuclear and renewables in the same period, with offshore wind capacity having grown 25% in the last year.
The largest wind farm in the world is almost complete - the Hornsea One farm will produce 1.2GW from 174 turbines, and already has two extensions in the works, continuing the UK’s massive growth in offshore wind.
Billionaires Stewart and Lynda Resnick have donated $750m to Cal Tech to study Climate Change - the largest donation the institution has ever received.
Long Reads
An exploration of one photographer’s quest to make green spaces less white.
Puerto Ricans want to move to renewables, but with the government not willing to hold industry accountable, it may be left to community efforts to make the changes required.
A deep-dive into the effects of light pollution on the natural environment - another oft-forgotten side effect of civilisation on the ecosystems we live in.
End of the Line
That’s all I have for you this week. Thanks for reading, and if you made it this far, well done! As always, if you enjoyed it, I’d really appreciate if you shared it - the readership is growing week on week, and seeing new subscribers pop up really helps keep me motivated to send these out every Wednesday :)
Oli