Hello again. Somehow it’s already mid-September, which means it’s almost time for the Global Climate Strike (it’s on Friday, if you’ve missed it until now). If you are participating, I’d also urge you to add the Climate Strike banner to your/your company’s site if you can (it’s super quick and easy to do!). There are hundreds of events organised across the world, with everyone from schoolchildren to employees of the biggest tech companies taking part.
On the tech front, it’s great to see Shopify joining Stripe in really committing to the environment, pledging minimum donations to both general environmental causes as well as carbon sequestration, and aiming for carbon neutrality. I hope we see more companies coming forward and making public commitments like this in the coming months.
State of the Climate
This week’s CO2 levels are 408.59 ppm, as we approach the low point in the annual CO2 cycle, versus 405.31 ppm a year ago.
The Internal Displacement Monitoring Center published its latest report on people displaced by extreme weather. The number was a record 7 million for the first half of this year, which is estimated to grow to as much as 22 million once the effects of the tropical storm season (which normally runs from June to September) are taken into account.
5 years on from the New York Declaration on Forests, and not only has deforestation not decreased, it’s actually grown. The annual CO2 emissions from tropical tree cover loss are approximately equal to the total GHG output of the EU, with the world losing an area of forest the size of the UK each year.
The Guardian dived into the increasing problem of lethal algae blooms on Brittany’s beaches, linked to the heavy industrial farming in the province, which causes large amounts of nitrate runoff and waste from pig, poultry and dairy farming to flow into the sea. The government appears to be aware, but is reluctant to tackle the root cause, despite several deaths. Similar blooms may be on the cards for the US West Coast, as a marine heatwave is forecast for the region. A similar heatwave several years back caused algal blooms and killed sea lions and whales along the coast.
Japan’s environment minister has said that operators of the Fukushima Daiichi plant may have to start dumping radioactive groundwater into the sea by 2022, as they have accumulated more than 1 million tons of it, and are running out of room.
Visualisation of the Week
This week’s visualisation comes from Our World in Data, and highlights the disparity between our current pledged policies and the Paris Agreement pathways of 1.5-2°C of warming. We need to push for much more ambitious targets, especially in the Western world.
Attack of the Drones
One of the larger stories this week was the attack on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq refinery by Yemeni Houthi rebels. They used explosive-laden drones to shut down the enormous facility, reportedly halving the country’s output of oil. Whilst overall world oil supply is not affected, oil prices jumped $12 at the news, and Trump has said that the US is ‘locked and loaded’ and seemingly willing to go to war over the incident. The US says it was orchestrated by the Iranians, who have been linked to the Houthi rebel movement by the Saudis, the US and others.
It’s a worrying situation, and it remains to be seen whether one of the war, which has killed an estimated 90,000 people so far, and pushed Yemen to the brink of famine, will escalate into a wider conflict across the Middle East. It’s scary to think how much of the modern world, and modern geopolitics, hinges on the supply and demand for oil and petroleum products.
It is of course impossible to predict the future, but as solar and wind make up increasingly large proportions of every nation’s power supply, it seems likely that the balance of power around the world will shift. Many nations that formerly had to rely on fuel imports will become power independent, and indeed may become net exporters - it’s not hard to see countries in North Africa capitalising on their high potential solar capacity and proximity to Europe, for example.
Producers of wind and solar technology will also likely be big winners in the coming years. This makes China’s current strategy seem almost prescient - by massively subsidising the production of both solar and wind power in their domestic market, they have built up a massive lead in both manufacturing capacity and expertise - 8 of the top 10 solar panel companies and 6 of the top 10 wind power companies are Chinese. As more and more governments rush to move to renewables as they realise the seriousness of climate change, the Chinese look to be in a very strong position.
News Highlights
China’s CO2 emissions are up by 4% during the first half of 2019, which mostly seems to be due to another building and infrastructure push in the country. Power emissions are fairly stable, despite growth in demand, and EV sales are up over 60%. It’s worth a reminder that China is really pushing hard on the climate front - they have something like 99% of all electric buses and buy half of all EVs sold.
India may be the first country in the world to have 100% LED lighting. The change is likely to save around £4.5bn/year. This comes soon after Trump’s repeal of the energy saving lighting bill recently - he claimed this week that the bulbs make him look orange.
China may be raising its climate ambitions at the upcoming UN Climate Action summit in New York later this month. The EU may also have news regarding a bloc-wide climate target, unlike Australia, whose PM won’t be attending despite being in the US at the time.
The head of the Brazilian Senate has signed an agreement with the Supreme Court to assign 1bn reais (~$245m) in recovered money from the ‘Car Wash’ investigation to protecting the Amazon.
Electric and plug-in hybrid car sales are on the rise, and set to pass 1m annually in the EU by 2020. Similarly in California, whilst overall car sales are declining, EV sales are up by 63%, with hybrids up by 22%. However, there’s still a long way to go - 81% of cars sold in the state are still gasoline powered.
Many US states are imposing EV fees in lieu of fuel taxes, but are often setting them way too high, running the risk of discouraging EV ownership just as mass market ownership is on the horizon.
The Indian states of Chhattisgarh and Gujarat are both stating that they won’t be building any new coal power plants. This is partly due to the rise of renewables, but also due to the current overcapacity in coal, which is making it not economically viable to build more.
California has signed its 100% clean energy commitment into law. It is now required to reach 100% clean energy by 2045, with 50% by 2025, and 60% by 2030. It also signed off a carbon neutrality bill committing it to removing as much CO2 as it produces by 2045.
Gas plants may well be untenable by 2035, when wind and solar will be cheaper than operating existing plants. This could put over $100bn in planned investments at risk.
LA has just approved a huge new battery and solar project, at 3.3cents/kWh, a record low for this type of contract.
At this rate there needs to be a weekly section on the Trump administration repealing environmental protections. This week it’s clean water protections, which limited the quantities of pollutants that could be used near streams and other bodies of water. The EPA is also looking to legally redefine ‘waters of the US’, which could make it harder for future administrations to put protections back in place.
The Trump administration is also pushing to open up the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska to oil and gas exploration, despite publicly released information showing that the magnitude of the climate impacts would likely overshadow any benefits from oil development.
Extinction Rebellion has reported that their membership has topped 100,000 for the first time.
Long Reads
Some longer pieces to peruse at your leisure.
The world is not warming evenly - more than 10% has already warmed by at least 2°C, and the consequences are dire.
Time imagines the world in 2050, looking back at how we might have approached the climate crisis - the quick wins, the missteps and hard battles we may face along the way.
At the opposite end, Emily Atkin (who runs the excellent HEATED newsletter) considers a world where nationalism runs rampant, and climate change accelerates unchecked. Scary stuff, but we can avoid it if we act now.
End Transmission
That’s all I have for you this week. As always, please do share this if you enjoyed it, and let me know what you thought - I always appreciate feedback!
Cheers,
Oli