Welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly summary of all things climate.
As a reminder, I’m looking to add on bonus subscriber content as time goes on, in fact I’m hoping to release another bonus article in the next week or so, focusing on afforestation and its impact on emissions. For now, these articles will be free, but going forward I plan to make them for subscribers only, so if you like what you see and want to support the newsletter, please do consider signing up! If you just want to stick to the main newsletter, that’s also fine of course - reading and sharing that every week is still a massive support!
This week saw the Church of England create a new £600m pension fund that will invest in companies ranked by how they prioritise meeting the Paris Agreement goals. They don’t explicitly exclude fossil fuel companies (Repsol and Shell both made their list), but many didn’t cut it - Exxon Mobil, Chevron and BP all failed to meet their criteria. Large investors have real sway over the direction of companies, so it’s good to see more funds and firms actively asserting their power for good.
The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has just passed 20 years old, and in their annual letter they both reviewed their past 20 years of philanthropy, as well as focusing on new targets - this time climate change and gender equality. As the world’s largest private foundation, this has real power on its own, but the Gates’ are also seen as a signal for other philanthropic efforts, so hopefully this will catalyse more money towards both these important causes.
In a minor final note, Ryanair has been told to stop showing ads in the UK claiming it was Europe’s lowest-emissions carrier, as they are ‘misleading’. This follows a campaign by members of CAT and elsewhere to report the ads. A small victory perhaps, but still worth celebrating!
State of the Climate
CO2 levels this week: 412.82 ppm
This time last year: 410.66 ppm
It’s official - January 2020 was the warmest January on record, a good start for the year. Europe has been around 3°C above the 1981-2010 average, and the Norwegian village of Sunndalsora hit 19°C on January 2nd - more than 25°C above the average temperature for the month. Antarctic temperature records were also smashed this week, with the Antarctic peninsula recording a temperature of 18.3°C.
Elsewhere, it’s been a story of both rain and drought. Australia’s east coast has seen its heaviest rainfall in decades, with Sydney recording the wettest day since 1992. Good news - it’s put out many of the wildfires. Bad news - the rain has washed ash and debris into dams, and there are now concerns that drinking water supplies may be contaminated. Heavy rain has continued in Brazil, with São Paulo receiving 11cm of rainfall in one night, flooding roads and stopping trains. Meanwhile Thailand is suffering from the worst drought in 40 years, which has hit the country’s sugar production hard - potentially cutting production 30%. All three of the country’s main cash crops have been hit hard by the drought, and the economy is struggling.
Sea level rise appears to be accelerating along the US coastline, with some parts of Louisiana seeing an 8mm rise last year. In the Arctic, a new study has found that certain parts of permafrost have a tendency to melt extremely fast. Whilst the ice-vein filled areas only comprise 5% of all permafrost, the additional methane is enough to double expected emissions from permafrost.
Visualisation of the Week
This week’s visualisation is a bit of a step back - it shows world greenhouse gas emissions from 2016, split by industry (yes, I know, 4 years old, but they’ve only just released the chart!). Sometimes it’s good to step back and look at the big picture - it can really help clarify just how many major sources of emissions there are, and how much work we have to do. If you want to see a much more detailed version of this chart for the US, have a look at this post by Otherlab.
The Tesla Rocketship
Investors this week, large and small, have been following the skyrocketing price of Tesla. The car company’s stock went up like one of Elon Musk’s rockets this week, and is up 112% this year. Tesla is now worth more than GM, Fiat Chrysler and VW, combined. Tesla stock has always been a touch volatile - many have bet strongly either for or against the car maker, partly due to its status as the biggest name in EVs, but also due to its mercurial founder, Musk.
But why now? Part of it is that Tesla has finally hit its stride - it’s delivering consistently, both profits and cars, something it has struggled with in the past. It’s just expanded production into China, a huge market for EVs, which will lower its prices there. But also, EVs across the world are starting to be taken seriously. Most major manufacturers are making significant investments in transitioning to electric, and some are betting everything on it. Consumers are also shifting to EVs in ever greater numbers - France had over 10,000 EV registrations in January, 8.2% of total sales - and cities across Europe are starting to clamp down on fossil fuel vehicles as climate change worsens and air pollution increases.
However, Tesla are still so far ahead of the competition. They started making EVs when ‘electric vehicle’ meant go-karts and milk floats, and in developing their own batteries, motors, running gear and more, they gained a competitive advantage that traditional manufacturers have struggled to adapt to. Investors are now starting to view TSLA as a tech stock rather than a car maker, and that’s one reason why prices have shot up. Elon Musk may be crazy, but with Tesla, he was far ahead of the curve.
News Highlights
US vs the Climate
The Trump administration has finalised plans to open up 2m acres of formerly protected land in Utah for energy developers and ranchers.
Republicans are fast-tracking a number of climate-related policies through Congress, potentially in an effort to appease increasingly climate-aware voters in the run up to the election.
The Trump administration is moving to relax rules around the incidental killing of birds. The proposals would mean that firms that caused oil spills, for example, would no longer be fined for the resulting deaths of seabirds.
Democrats are reporting that the Trump administration is withholding $823m destined for clean energy.
Trump has announced his $4.8tn election year budget plan, which includes a 26% cut to the EPA. However, given it also cuts Medicaid, food stamps, farm subsidies and student loans, the chances of it getting through unchallenged are slim.
Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette announced a $64m R&D plan for coal, because that will surely prevent the systematic collapse of the US coal industry!
Researchers from the University of California have come up with a solar panel concept that would work at night, through the use of a thermoradiative cell.
Other News
Canada’s Federal Court of Appeal has ruled against 4 different challenges from First Nation groups against the expansion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline. The project was originally approved in 2016, but has been mired in controversy and legal battles ever since.
The UK government is still struggling to replace Claire O’Neill as president of COP 26. Several senior climate figures have criticised the UK’s lack of climate leadership around the crucial talks. Bloomberg tried to decipher what the new PM’s position on the climate is, and the answers were… inconclusive.
The EU will unveil its Green Deal as law on March 4th, although it will still need to be approved by national governments to take effect.
A new report suggests that moving transport, buildings and industry towards electrification could cut European emissions by 60% between 2020 and 2050 (although grid capacity would need to grow by 75%).
The carbon price in the EU ETS is likely to increase by around ⅓ in 2020, in the fourth consecutive year of rises. The price increases are welcome after previous issues with oversupply of permits caused a price collapse.
Europe installed 3.6GW of offshore wind in 2019, and now has nearly 22GW in total. Renewables made up 34.6% of power across Europe last year, as coal dropped by 24%.
Japan is looking to build up to 20GW of coal-fired power capacity over the next decade, as it struggles to fill the gap left by suspended nuclear reactors.
A report on coal holdings suggests that major central banks are holding at least $12bn in bonds and stocks exposed to coal. The report goes on to encourage banks to purge those assets, and create rules discouraging such investments in future.
Shell is moving into solar in Australia in a big way, announcing its first large scale solar farm in Queensland. The company wants to be the world’s top electricity producer by 2030, and has been buying up Australian power and solar companies over the past year.
Long Reads
CarbonBrief have updated their factcheck on the carbon impact of EVs versus conventional cars.
The Atlantic explores the interesting link between western gender norms and viral claims about soy and vegan meats.
The story of the lawyer who, after winning a huge case against Chevron on behalf of Ecuadorians, has been systematically pursued and had his life destroyed by the corporation.
The End Times
That’s all I have for you this week. As always, thanks for reading, and if you’ve any feedback or suggestions for me, I’d love to hear them (you can reach me at oli@forgethefuture.com). If you feel like sharing this, I’d massively appreciate it!
See you next week,
Oli