A Green Recovery?
Forge the Future #49 - World leaders hint at a greener route out of the current crisis
Welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly guide to all things climate.
It seems that climate commitments are catching on for oil companies - Total SA has unveiled new targets for lower carbon intensity amidst a host of recent similar announcements from other firms. Oil firms are generally feeling the squeeze at the moment, with Shell cutting their dividend for the first time since the 40s. HEATED sat in on their investor call, and the impression is that they’re very much on the defensive.
I’m sure more than a few of you heard about Michael Moore’s new film ‘Planet of the Humans’. It has produced near universal outrage from environmentalists and climate experts, with a number calling for it to be taken down. The film casts renewable energy as a hoax, but uses outdated, debunked and misleading information to make its points. Unsurprisingly, right-wing think tanks have already leapt on it to promote anti-climate sentiments.
State of the Climate
CO2 levels this week: 417.37 ppm
This time last year: 413.15 ppm
April was the joint hottest April ever, tying with 2016, according to the Copernicus program. Last month saw extremely high temperatures over parts of Europe, Greenland and Antarctica. A new study out this week suggests that 2-3.5 billion people could be exposed to unlivable heat by 2070, as rising temperatures bring more and more of the world above the level where living is possible without air conditioning.
Scientists are rushing to study the impact of ship noise on whales, as the current pandemic has lowered shipping traffic to unprecedented lows. Measurements have suggested a consistent reduction in low-frequency sound totalling 4-5 dB (which may not sound much, but decibels are logarithmic). A similar drop in shipping noise after 9/11 resulted in a landmark study showing that ship noise caused chronic stress in baleen whales.
Another global study on insect levels has found that numbers globally are down around 25% since 1990. In particular, sharp declines in Europe have shocked scientists. Freshwater insect numbers are up, but they make up only 10% of species. On a similar, but more surreal note, the hunt is on for asian hornets, recently discovered in the US. The massive insects have a sting powerful enough to kill people on rare occasions, but are more a threat to bees - a single hornet can decimate entire hives.
Visualisation of the Week
This week’s visualisation comes from a new study, using NASA’s satellite laser altimetry to quantify the changes in ice sheets across the globe (the above being Greenland, of course). It shows even more definitively than before that ice sheet losses globally have outpaced gains.
The world is still struggling under the burden of the coronavirus pandemic, and the scale of the impact is really starting to show - an IEA report out this week puts global energy down 6% over the year, with emissions down 8%. That may not sound massive, but that’s over six times larger than the financial crisis in 2008 - this is undoubtedly the largest ever impact on energy, and thus the economy.
Lockdowns have been ongoing in much of the West for several months now, and in Asia for longer still. The dust is starting to settle after the initial emergency bailouts and other economic support, and now leaders are starting to look towards what a recovery and restart of the economy might look like. It’s abundantly apparent that the world is not going back to the way things were before, but there have been encouraging signs that some leaders are starting to see the possibilities for a green recovery. The leader of the IMF, along with the German chancellor and UN Secretary this week all called for a green recovery that tackles climate change.
It’s long looked like tackling climate change might take the back-burner for a while until this current crisis is past us, but now the EU is discussing ending fossil fuel subsidies in response to the slump in oil prices - a move that previously would have been unthinkable. I’ve drawn the link between the current crisis and climate change previously in this newsletter, and other, more eminent voices have suggested links. Emily Atkin, of HEATED, has been making similar links with more panache since this current crisis started. She, and all the others are right - the two crises are undoubtedly linked - here’s hoping world leaders will take note as they prepare to forge a route out of the current situation.
News Highlights
US vs the Climate
A federal judge has vacated hundreds of oil and gas leases in Montana, citing a lack of proper environmental analysis. This is far from the first time that the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) has allowed judges to challenge projects on environmental grounds, which is probably why the Trump administration is planning to de-fang it in the near future.
A survey by the Environmental Defense Fund has found that around 1 in 10 gas flares in the Permian Basin are malfunctioning or unlit, meaning methane emissions are even higher than previously thought.
The US offshore wind industry is taking a beating from coronavirus, with Ørsted announcing that 5 of the 6 projects it has underway are facing delays due to the pandemic.
The first lawsuit against the Trump administration’s recent rollback of emissions standards has come in, but the suit, from a libertarian group, argues that the law doesn’t go far enough.
The US Energy Department is holding onto around $43bn in low-interest clean energy loans, even as clean energy firms struggle amidst the current crisis.
Tesla is moving into the utility business, using a solar rental model, and plans for its solar business to be at least as large as its car revenue. Maybe that’ll make up for Musk wiping $14bn off Tesla’s value this week with a single tweet.
Other News
Air France’s €7bn bailout will come with heavy environmental conditions, including a halving of emissions per passenger kilometer by 2030, and not being allowed to fly domestically on many routes served by TGV.
China has set up a pilot 500kW tidal turbine south of Shanghai. Some are hoping that a Chinese push into tidal power will reduce prices for the nascent technology.
Abu Dhabi is moving ahead with an enormous 2GW solar farm - currently one of the biggest planned worldwide. The leading bid has also offered extremely low prices of just 1.35 cents/kWh.
Future coal projects in Australia (the second largest exporter of thermal coal) look bleak as Westpac Banking Corp announced it will withdraw from thermal coal funding.
Australia has set up a A$300m fund to promote development of hydrogen projects, as part of a wider plan to become a world leader in hydrogen exports by 2030.
Chinese coal company Baofeng Energy has started construction on the world’s largest solar-powered hydrogen plant in north-west China.
Long Reads
A new study has shown that the dynamics of trade policies have effectively become de-facto fossil fuel subsidies - an interesting insight into the links between trade and climate policy.
A Consumer Reports investigation into how Coke and Pepsi are making millions bottling tap water in Detroit - water that residents are then forced to buy if their supplies are shut off.
A CarbonBrief (of course!) analysis of the emissions impact of lower electricity demand due to COVID-19 in the EU - demand is down 14%, but emissions are down 39%.
A look at Australia’s grid, which has seen massive growth in renewables - it highlights both the benefits and some of the issues faced by a grid dominated by renewable energy.
The End Times
That’s all I have for you this week. As always, thanks for reading, and if you’ve any feedback or suggestions for me, I’d love to hear them (you can reach me at oli@forgethefuture.com). If you feel like sharing this, I’d massively appreciate it!
Stay safe, and see you next week,
Oli