Systemic change in a time of crisis
Forge the Future #44 - What does the future look like once the dust settles?
Welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly guide to all things climate.
Another week, and yet more chaos. The world is struggling at the moment, and it seems it may last for a long time yet. We all have to recalibrate our normal to this new and scary world, where everyone is a potential threat, and simple human gestures now carry implicit risks. Nevertheless, life continues on, and the climate is not going anywhere. This week saw the US pass a $2tn stimulus plan to keep their economy going, which has seen much back and forth over pro-/anti-climate measures, as Republicans fight to save their precious fossil fuel industry whilst Democrats try to attach some measure of environmental guarantees to bailouts.
In Europe, Barclays is finally bowing to pressure and will vote on measures to go to net zero emissions by 2050 at it’s AGM in May. It will also consider a measure limiting it to providing finance solely to projects that align with the Paris climate goals. The bank is currently Europe’s largest financier of fossil fuels, having provided over £100bn since the Paris agreement in 2016.
State of the Climate
CO2 levels this week: 415.52 ppm
This time last year: 411.24 ppm
The Great Barrier Reef has suffered its third mass bleaching in five years, after sustained high sea temperatures in the area. The reef is suffering heavily, with the last two bleachings hitting ⅔ of the reef system, killing off corals and destroying habitats.
The National Audit Office has warned that parts of England may experience drought within 20 years, as rainfall decreases. Current supplies are drawing too much from rivers, lakes and groundwater supplies, and are in danger of pushing the water system beyond its ability to recover. Meanwhile, a new study into methane emissions from coal mines suggests that they could be more than double previous estimates, pushing coal emissions still further above those of oil and gas.
The impact of coronavirus is now visible in pollution levels over Europe, with massively reduced NO2 levels showing just how much industry has shut down during the current crisis. At any other time this would be a cause for celebration, but it’s hard to see this in a positive light given the circumstances. The virus is also hitting scientific research hard, with many projects put on hold. Labs are being closed, research trips are being delayed or cancelled, and funding is at risk.
Visualisation of the Week
An amazing visualisation from CarbonBrief’s updated map of the world’s coal power plants, showing the shifting dynamics of the fuel over the past 20 years.
This week I wanted to dive more into an interesting topic that’s close to my heart - the wider impacts of climate change. Michael Liebreich, founder of Bloomberg New Energy Fund, wrote an excellent piece this week on the comparisons between the current crisis and the climate. I also wrote on this topic a couple of weeks back, but this is focusing on a different area - the wider impacts of such a catastrophe.
The impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic are still very uncertain, and estimates are changing week by week as the situation unfolds. However, it seems certain that it will be larger than anyone expects. As with many such situations, the immediate impacts do not tell the whole story, and the wider social effects are where the true damage, and indeed change, lie. In the case of the current disaster, the pandemic has closed down entire industries, forcing people into their homes. Buying habits are shifting, behaviours are changing, and people are discovering that previously hard rules about society are more fluid than they thought.
The impacts are huge - not only will some sectors struggle to make it through due to the initial shutdown, but others may find once this all settles down that their services are not in demand, as habits and the status quo shifts. Delivery services are already booming, whilst conference and business travel may well become a thing of the past. That will in turn have implications for the skills and dynamics of the new economy. Will we become a permanently two-tier society - those who work in our home offices, served by an underclass of poorly paid gig-economy workers delivering our every need? There are so many potential impacts that it’s hard to unpack even a fraction.
Many of these outcomes are only becoming apparent now, and no doubt more will unfold as time goes on. And how this becomes relevant to this newsletter is the comparison to the climate crisis. The timelines are different, but the impacts on society will be as large, if not larger. But what are the unexpected consequences? The social dynamics that will shift how people behave, how they live their lives? The direct impacts of climate change are scary enough, but a world where these are the new normal is perhaps one we should consider, if we can bear to do so. That way we stand a chance of preparing, at least a little, for what lies ahead.
News Highlights
US vs the Climate
The EPA has ‘temporarily’ suspended its enforcement of environmental rules in light of the current pandemic, leaving polluters to self-enforce in a move widely condemned by environmental groups.
The White House has finalised the rule rolling back Obama-era fuel efficiency standards. The rules have gone back and forth for years, but look like they may finally be enacted.
US plastics groups are seizing the current crisis as an opportunity to roll back bans on single use plastic bags, on the basis of rather flimsy evidence claiming reusable bags can spread the virus.
At least three states have quietly passed ‘critical infrastructure’ bills that criminalise protests against fossil fuel infrastructure.
PG&E has pleaded guilty to 84 counts of involuntary manslaughter and one count of unlawfully starting a fire, in relation to the 2018 Camp Fire wildfire disaster.
A federal judge has ordered a full environmental review of the Dakota Access Pipeline, after finding that the US Army Corps of Engineers made a ‘highly controversial’ decision when it approved the federal permits for the project.
A number of cities in the US are reevaluating whether recycling counts as an essential service as the pandemic spreads, with policies varying from city to city.
Several states are pushing to class coal mining as an essential activity, despite it involving a heavy toll on the lungs, and forcing workers into close quarters with one another.
A district court has upheld the Trump administration’s decision to scrap a regulation on fracking on public and tribal lands, after it was challenged by California and a coalition of environmental groups.
New York’s last coal-fired power plant has now retired, as stricter emissions regulations force them out of business.
Other News
The world’s wind power capacity rose by a fifth in 2019, close to the all time record. Offshore wind in particular grew by a record 6.1GW, and now comprises a tenth of new windfarm installations.
The UK government has quietly released a report calling for a switch from cars to public transport and active travel as part of a strategy to decarbonise transport.
As the global pandemic cuts the volume of flights, weather forecasters are warning that the decrease in data from aviation could decrease the accuracy of weather predictions.
South Africa has loosened new emission standards for sulfur dioxide. Its new rules will be lower than current limits, but 28x higher than that of China.
New research shows how fast India has scaled up LED adoption - the country has taken them from 0.3% to 46% of the market in just 5 years - a 130x increase.
GCL System Integration Technology Co is planning to build the world’s largest solar panel plant, capable of meeting half of world demand on its own. The move is part of a general expansion by Chinese solar manufacturers keen to grab more of the market.
Long Reads
CarbonBrief looks at why China’s next 5 year plan could be crucial to world decarbonisation efforts, as the country decides whether to commit to huge amounts of new coal power.
The story of how federal scientists are fighting back against rollbacks of legislation by putting hard evidence into reports that can be used to challenge the cuts.
The End Times
That’s all I have for you this week. As always, thanks for reading, and if you’ve any feedback or suggestions for me, I’d love to hear them (you can reach me at oli@forgethefuture.com). If you feel like sharing this, I’d massively appreciate it!
See you next week,
Oli