Festive FtF News #82 - 23rd December 2020
Cyclones, cheap batteries and the importance of equality
Hello, and welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly rundown of the latest climate news.
Christmas is here, although for those of us in the UK it’s been a hectic week, with rapidly changing lockdown situations wrecking festive plans for many, and international and domestic travel shut to try and prevent the spread of a new strain of COVID-19. With the deadline for Brexit also less than 10 days away, the next week or so will be eventful for us here on ‘plague island’! Still, life continues, and the climate doesn’t care about COVID or fishing rights . A merry Christmas to all that celebrate such things, and here’s to the end of the decade that was 2020 🎄.
State of the world
Climate research and findings, weather events and studies
The Met Office has released its preliminary temperature predictions for 2021, and it’s likely to be a warm one - even with the cooling effect of La Niña, average global temperatures look likely to be 0.91-1.15°C above the pre-industrial average. This week also saw a major update to one of the major global temperature models - the Hadley Centre Climatic Research Unit Temperature (HadCRUT). Due to refinements in how Arctic and ocean surface temperatures are calculated, the model now shows that the Earth has warmed 18% more than it previously predicted. Whilst alarming, it puts it in line with most other major temperature models, which now all show around 1.1°C of warming.
Cyclone Yasa, a huge category 5 storm, has struck Fiji, bringing winds of 140-160mph, flooding and storm surges. At least 2 people have died, though that total is likely to rise - much of the affected area is still without communications. The tiny nation has historically seen relatively few storms, but in recent years more and more have hit - a major blow to a country that is likely to be catastrophically affected by rising sea levels and other climate change impacts.
A new report on climate-induced migration in south Asia predicts that as many as 63m people could be forced to move by 2050, due to rising sea and river levels and drought conditions. The numbers don’t include one-off events such as extreme storms, meaning that the number is almost certainly an under-prediction. However, swift climate action by the worst polluters globally could help significantly reduce those forced out of their homes.
In a rare moment of good news from the Arctic, Bowhead whales have made a surprise recovery. The whales were hunted commercially in huge numbers from the 1700s, decimating their populations, but have now rebounded to close to pre-whaling numbers in US waters. Having said this, the rapidly changing nature of the Arctic means that the species’ long term future is still uncertain.
Planet positives
Moving towards a greener and more equitable world
The Price is Right
BNEF published their annual battery price survey this week, which showed for the first time that some battery pack prices have dipped below $100/kWh, falling 13% in the last year. $100/kWh is seen as a tipping point figure, as it will enable battery electric vehicles to largely reach price parity with combustion-engined vehicles. Average pack prices globally are around $137/kWh, but packs are now routinely below that key $100/kWh figure for electric buses in China, and it is likely global averages will follow in the next 2-3 years.
That bus battery pack price is likely due to China’s enormous campaign to replace its buses nationwide - it has now replaced 60% of its buses with electric versions, up from 20% in 2015. The country has around 98% of the world’s electric buses, with adoption significantly slower elsewhere in the world.
East Africa is seeing surging demand for electric motorbikes. Motorbikes are an extremely common mode of transport in many countries in the region, and electric bikes are proving quieter, less polluting and cheaper to run than petrol-powered alternatives from India and China. As a result, countries such as Rwanda and Kenya are the birthplace for numerous startups producing bikes tailored for the African market.
Adverse circumstances
Events that move the needle in the wrong direction
A fairer world helps us all
A bevy of reports have highlighted once again the key role tackling inequality plays in climate action. The UN Emissions Gap report, aside from its focus on the emissions gap itself, also focused on the differing emissions between the rich and poor. The wealthiest 1% emit around 15% of world emissions - roughly equivalent to the emissions of the poorest 50%. Targeted reductions in emissions amongst the richest are crucial, with the report suggesting a 97% cut for the wealthiest 1% is needed. Aviation was highlighted as a key area, with half of commercial aviation emissions coming from from just 1% of the global population.
A divide is also showing in how climate solutions are implemented. A survey of public charging stations in Chicago found that 70% are located in just 3 community areas, and almost all are in the city’s more affluent neighbourhoods. This adds yet another barrier to adoption of EVs by those who are less well off, who aside from struggling with the higher up-front costs of the vehicles, also tend to live in housing less suited for home charging. Another study in California looking at the implementation of federal support for fire prevention measures found that money overwhelmingly went to communities that are richer and whiter. Poorer and non-white folks are already disproportionately affected by wildfires, being often more physically exposed, less likely to have insurance, and less able to rebuild, and this compounds those effects.
Lastly, a new study suggests that tackling gender inequality is likely to play a key role in helping countries adapt to the risks of climate change. Women are generally more vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change, especially in countries with high levels of gender inequality, so measures to tackle such inequities can help mitigate impacts on those who will be worst affected. In addition, higher levels of equality and female representation in national parliaments is correlated with greater climate action and more stringent climate policy.
Long Reads
Interesting deep-dives into climate-related topics
A follow-up from last week’s coverage of the UK’s 6th carbon budget, this week saw the publication of the UK’s first white paper on energy and climate change since 2007. There’s lots to be hopeful about here, with commitments to much higher levels of renewables, and adaptations to an increasingly electrified economy. There is, however, still a significant gap between the policies suggested here and in the UK’s recent 10 point green plan and the net-zero 2050 target. How that gap will be closed is an open question right now.
An excellent interview with Sir David Attenborough came out this week in The Guardian. Now 94, the veteran wildlife presenter and naturalist has become for many the face and voice of the natural world, and the interview explores his journey over the years, and his increasingly strident support for action on climate change in recent years.
Quick Headlines
Some quick climate news nuggets to sate your appetite
In a first, a UK coroner has ruled that air pollution was a deciding factor in the death of a 9 year old girl in London.
French President Emmanuel Macron plans to call a referendum on adding commitment to climate change to the French constitution.
Cheetahs have been reintroduced to the Bangweulu Wetlands in Zambia for the first time in almost a century.
That’s all I have for you this week. As always, thank you for reading, and if you liked it, why not share it with a friend? If you’ve any thoughts, feedback or suggestions, I’d love to hear them - you can reach me at oli@forgethefuture.com.
Stay safe, wear a mask, and see you next week,
Oli