FtF News #109 – 7th July 2021
Heat waves, electric ships and the climate cost of relying on CDR
Hello, and welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly rundown of the latest climate news.
Climate change sits at a certain distance for those of us fortunate enough to not live in the parts of the world most affected. Whilst 35+°C heat over the past few summers was definitely grim for me, I’m lucky in that I’m rarely directly impacted by the events I write about each week. It’s clear that that distance (or lack thereof) affects perspective – the vast array of screaming headlines about the current US heatwave or the wildfires last year sit in stark contrast to the dearth of articles about even higher temperatures in Pakistan, for example. Perhaps such events, grim though they are, will help motivate greater climate action before they too fade from the collective consciousness.
State of the world
Climate research and findings, weather events and studies
A vast number of column inches this week have been dedicated to the ongoing US and Canadian heatwave. A ‘heat dome’ effect has led to continued high temperatures across the Pacific West and into Canada, with many places seeing heat records broken by up to 10°F. The village of Lytton, BC saw three straight days of record temperatures, finally reaching 121.3°F/49.6°C – temperatures more normally associated with Death Valley. Then, to top it off, in the space of 15 minutes a wildfire swept through and levelled virtually the entire place.
Whilst heat dome effects are not unknown, this is a particularly severe example, and happening as it has in a highly populated part of North America, it is receiving massive attention. Attribution studies have yet to be done, but many say the likelihood of such an event occurring have been boosted hugely by climate change (to no one's surprise!), and they are only likely to become more frequent. And whilst this heatwave has received the most attention due to its location, it is far from the only extreme climate event this year, with high temperatures forcing blackouts in some of China’s largest industrial cities last month, and heatwaves also seen in Moscow, the UAE and the Caspian Sea, to name but a few.
Carbon Dioxide Removal, or CDR, is still an uncertain and expensive area, but despite that it has been incorporated into many Paris Agreement pathways. One of the chief arguments against such efforts is that if CDR fails to work out, we’ll be left massively off track due to over-emitting. This week, a study aimed to better model this uncertainty, and found that even with 1 in 10 chance of CDR failing, emissions cuts should be vastly more strict. The authors found global emissions should drop twice as fast in the 2020s, with an emphasis on cutting fossil fuel use particularly. Whether world leaders can be persuaded of this path given the huge ambition increase it represents remains to be seen, however.
In a very visual metaphor for the current state of the world, a gas pipeline leak in the Gulf of Mexico led to a portion of the sea setting on fire. The blaze was swiftly brought under control, but the apocalyptic images seemed fitting for the doom-laden times we currently live in.
Planet positives
Moving towards a greener and more equitable world
Electric on the Water
Shipping remains a persistent challenge for decarbonisation, although plenty of potential options exist (see last week’s long read on sail powered freight ships). As with aircraft, batteries are too heavy for long range vessels, at least in the near term. However, there are still plenty of potential use cases even at short range, especially for countries like Norway that rely heavily on sea transport due their geography. Norway is currently home to nearly ¾ of the 274 vessels globally running at least partially on batteries, and expects to double its 31 full electric car ferries by the end of the year.
So how has Norway done this? Partly, this is a government focus on decarbonisation – whilst Norway is known for its early electric car support, it’s also pouring funding into both clean shipping and air domestically, alongside regulation starting to restrict the use of diesel ships in some areas. This is helping build up a local clean shipping industry, although there still remain growing pains – persuading local governments to fund ship charging infrastructure remains tricky for now. As a result of this early push, Norwegian electric companies are now receiving interest from across the world from other short-range ship operators looking to partially or fully decarbonise their operations.
Adverse circumstances
Events that move the needle in the wrong direction
A Hidden Agenda
ExxonMobil and other big oil firms have become notorious in climate circles for their PR and media operations sowing doubt and distrust about climate science. However, the extent of their influence has been hard to gauge, as the firms are understandably cagey about revealing how they game the system. That changed this week after revealing interviews with several key Exxon lobbyists. The undercover interviews were conducted by Greenpeace’s Unearthed, and showed that the firm has been pulling strings and manipulating media and politics in the US for decades to an astounding degree. They show a huge disparity between the public face of the firm and its internal motivations, which is impressive given how far Exxon has lagged other big oil firms in talking up green policies.
The Exxon lobbyists discussed openly how they regularly meet with a number of key US politicians deemed crucial for passing major pieces of legislation such as the American Jobs Plan, ensuring that anything that would limit fossil fuels unduly or impose further taxes is nipped in the bud swiftly. Even seemingly benign statements like the non-specific backing of a carbon tax was shown to be tactical, giving the company ammunition to roll out against opponents, in the full knowledge that such a policy will never pass. They also make sure to launder controversial opinions or policies via industry think tanks or lobbying groups such as the API, allowing them to publicly distance themselves whilst giving their financial backing behind closed doors.
Long Reads
Interesting deep-dives into climate-related topics
With the roasting temperatures seen in the US and Canada, many in the western world are suddenly waking up to a world where climate change is here and now, rather than an imminent future threat. In a world where climate impacts will only get more intense and impactful, wherever we live, we need to think about how we ‘live in a Climate “Permanent Emergency”’, as David Wallace-Wells put it this week. Another piece on this theme that’s well worth a read is Sarah Miller’s ‘All the right words on climate have already been said’. It captures the frustration and helpless that can result from confronting climate change day after day, week after week. There are no easy answers here, but such is the nature of climate change. It is already here, and we have to learn to live with it and make the best of the world, however it turns out, whilst keeping motivated to prevent things worsening still further.
One of the Biden administration’s promises was improved support for Native American tribes, long neglected by the US government. Whilst moves like the return of the National Bison Range to the Salish and Kootenai are welcome, in so many ways Native Americans still face an uphill battle. As is true of so many marginalised communities, Native American tribes are some of the most impacted by climate change, largely due to being pushed into the least desirable land by colonialism and later the US government. Despite this, tribes are far less able to access government assistance for climate adaptation, showing once again how climate change strengthens systemic inequalities.
Quick Headlines
Some quick climate news nuggets to sate your appetite
The UK is to cease coal-fired power generation in October 2024, a year ahead of schedule (though this is largely a symbolic move).
China’s biggest bank has withdrawn from a massive planned coal power plant in Zimbabwe, citing environmental concerns.