FtF News #128 – 17th November 2021
COP26 concludes, the outsize impact of the wealthy, and the complex causes of climate delay
Hello, and welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly rundown of the latest climate news.
This week once again sees a heavy dose of COP26 news, as the conference drew to a close on Saturday. I’ll certainly be glad to get back to a more normal volume of climate coverage – I’m always happy to see the climate crisis receiving more attention, but it’s certainly meant that putting this newsletter together has been a lot more work these past couple of weeks!
Overall, the conference seems to have been a mixed bag – there’s definitely been progress, and the urgency of public sentiment on the climate crisis seems to have been echoed in negotiations more this year. However, it definitely didn’t go as far as many hoped, and as always, there’s plenty more work to be done, both in fleshing out the pledges made, and pushing for further commitments in the coming months and years.
State of the world
Climate research and findings, weather events and studies
A new study suggests that if aviation continues to grow at current rates, it could add 0.1°C of warming by 2050. However, if flying levels dropped by 2.5% a year, it would keep impacts within manageable levels. Given the struggle to decarbonise aviation, it’s not surprising that the only solution that’s workable is a reduction in demand.
Speaking of the impacts of the wealthy on climate change, the richest 1% will account for 16% of all emissions by 2030, emitting on average 70 tonnes of CO2 per person per year. By contrast, the poorest 50% emit just 1 tonne on average, well below the global average of around 5 tonnes. Given the 400 or so private jets used to transport delegates to COP26, there are unsurprisingly more than a few calls for the rich to practice what they preach.
Official modelling of Australia’s net zero plan suggests it will only cut emissions by ⅓ over no plan at all. The plan’s huge reliance on offsets and ‘technological advancements’ means this ‘net zero’ plan is anything but.
Analysis of plastic waste has found that nearly 26,000 tonnes of rubbish related to the pandemic has ended up in the world’s oceans – mostly PPE such as masks and gloves. The waste was largely washed into the sea on the world’s major rivers, with the top 10 rivers accounting for some 79% of the rubbish.
Climate Visuals
A picture tells a thousand words…
A photo essay on the church forests of Ethiopia – pockets of biodiversity in a landscape increasingly falling under the sway of agriculture.
Spectacular satellite imagery from the NYT showing some of the impact of climate change from space.
Planet positives
Moving towards a greener and more equitable world
A mixed bag, but signs of progress
COP26 is finally over, after months of build-up and two weeks of pledges and negotiations. The verdict? For any other COP, the progress would’ve been impressive, but in the current environment, many hoped for far more. Negotiations on the summary statement for the conference went on into Saturday, but included a message about phasing down ‘unabated’ coal power (i.e. coal power without CCS) as well as a loose reference to removing some fossil fuel subsidies. Both were revised heavily back from their original form, but both are unprecedented inclusions. The statement also urges countries to revisit and strengthen their NDCs (official commitments under the Paris Agreement) next year – three years ahead of the previous schedule.
Outside of the official statement, the week also saw an agreement to phase out fossil fuel car sales by 2040, with 6 major carmakers and 30 countries signing on, including Mercedes, Ford, GM and Volvo. However, China, the US and Japan all refused to sign, as did Toyota, VW and Nissan-Renault. In support of this pledge, the UK expanded its zero emissions vehicle targets to include HGVs for the first time.
Finally, in an unexpected move, the US and China made a loose agreement to work together on the climate. Few firm details were announced, just vague commitments to tackle methane emissions and illegal deforestation, but it signals a potential warming of otherwise frosty relations between the two superpowers, at least on the climate front.
Adverse circumstances
Events that move the needle in the wrong direction
COP-ing out on addressing inequity
“We are drowning in promises [...] Commitments will not reduce CO2. Promises will not stop the suffering of the people. Pledges will not stop the planet from warming.” 1
Whilst I’m trying to mostly frame the outcomes of COP26 in a positive light, there’s no doubt that there was a lot of disappointment at the conference, both from climate activists and from developing nations. Much of the frustration from the latter group revolved around climate finance, which has been a sore point for years. In light of the failure of developed nations to deliver on their $100bn/year climate finance pledge, many countries, including India and various groups of African nations, are pushing for massively increased funding.
In particular, a sore point has been the phase-out of funding for fossil fuel projects. Many African nations have significant fossil fuel reserves, and are frustrated at being told that they cannot use those resources to help improve their economies. Some described it as developed nations ‘pulling the ladder up behind them’ – having fuelled their own development, they are denying African nations the same opportunity. Ultimately, there’s no neat answer, but it’s clear that developed nations need to provide a lot more funding if they expect Africa to leave its fossil fuels in the ground.
Long Reads
Interesting deep-dives into climate-related topics
Indigenous peoples have a closer and more symbiotic relationship with nature than almost any other group, and also routinely bear the brunt of environmental damage and impacts. Inside Climate News covers the impact of decades on oil extraction on indigenous people in Peru, and the campaign by women in the affected areas to gain legal protections for the Marañón River, which has been heavily polluted by the fossil fuel companies, who’ve skirted or outright flouted environmental laws for years and are now trying to dodge clean-up costs.
The Guardian explores the rise of climate ‘inactivism’, showing how a few bad actors have leveraged existing threads of political disillusionment, wealth inequality and worries around housing and jobs, and turned them into a vehement pushback against environmental policies. As is often the case, what appears on the surface to be a fight over environmental ideas has its roots in much deeper and longer-running inequities. The takeaway? Environmental policies cannot afford to leave anywhere or anyone behind.
Ghanaian reporter Muntaka Chasant explores the sudden and unexpected bulldozing of the huge informal Agbogbloshie e-waste site in Accra. This destruction has destroyed the businesses of thousands of young Ghanaians who depended upon the site for their livelihoods. Whilst the work is dirty and dangerous, there are few options for these people, who feel ignored and rejected by a government that doesn’t want to acknowledge their existence.
Quick Headlines
Some quick climate news nuggets to sate your appetite
European carbon prices rose to a new record of €66.97 per tonne following COP26.
Chevron’s giant Gorgon CCS plant has been forced to use offsets to meet carbon targets after failing to sequester enough carbon.
The UK government is to put £210m into small modular nuclear reactors, as well as looking into better funding models for new nuclear power plants.
Vanessa Nakate addressing the COP26 summit last week