Hello, and welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly rundown of the latest climate news.
Here in the UK we’ve finally come to the end of the heatwave, and frankly, the last few days of cooler weather, rain and thunderstorms have been sweet relief! Whilst those of you from warmer climes are probably amused by the idea of finding mid-30s (Celcius) unbearably hot, for context this is the longest run of temperatures above 34°C in the UK in 60 years. Unfortunately, the UK just isn’t built for hot weather - air conditioning is rare, and our buildings aren’t designed to passively stay cool. This is an experience shared with many places around the world, as more and more regions experience weather well beyond traditional norms. Adaptation will be expensive, but necessary if we’re to avoid serious health impacts as well as loss of productivity.
State of the world
Climate research and findings, weather events and studies
Mauritius is trying to come to terms with massive devastation of its coastlines and ecosystems after the MV Wakashio grounded off the coast and began leaking oil. Much of the remaining oil has now been removed from the ship, but around 1000 tons spilled and is coating much of the coastline. Initial estimates suggest it may take a decade to restore the local ecosystem, and many fishermen fear for their livelihoods. Mauritius is seeking extensive compensation from the owners for the disaster.
Wild weather continues across the world, with a ‘derecho’ storm system wreaking havoc across the US midwest. The 160mi line of storms included winds up to 100 mph, lightning and hail, and took out power to over a million homes. Large swathes of cropland, as well as grain stores, were also damaged by the weather. In India, heavy rains have continued, with 3 killed in downpours in Jaipur, and Mumbai suffering its heaviest daily August rains in 47 years.
New research has implicated neonicotinoid pesticides in the decline of US bird species. The pesticides have already been associated with the decline of bees, but using the chemicals to coat seeds appears to be causing an outsize impact on bird populations, decreasing their ability to reproduce and harming development, in effects that can last for years. Speaking of bees, new research from India has looked at the impact of air pollution on the insects for the first time. The study found that affected bees visited flowers less often, had negative circulatory responses, and died far more quickly in captivity than bees from less polluted areas.
Planet positives
Moving towards a greener and more equitable world
A turnaround for the US?
Last week saw the announcement of Kamala Harris as Joe Biden’s VP pick. Now that the dust has settled, analysts are starting to understand where this puts the Democratic climate policy. Biden’s climate platform puts $2tn towards a sweeping reform of environmental measures and decarbonisation, and with Harris’ strong record on climate justice, the US could be poised for a turnaround in November should the Democrats win through. Currently, chances seem good for a Democratic win, but as always, nothing is certain, especially with a sitting president who hasn’t said whether he’ll respect the result of the election or not.
Meanwhile, in the few remaining months, Trump’s administration is doing all it can to dismantle environmental regulations left, right and centre. Currently on the cards is a reboot of an Obama-era rule capping methane emissions from oil wells and related equipment. Whilst this would save money for smaller firms, many of the larger oil companies are actually against the change, as they have already cleaned up their act. The Interior Secretary also approved drilling in Alaska’s Arctic Refuge - a move widely opposed by the public, and one that makes little sense in the current environment. Oil reserves there are uncertain, drilling would be expensive given the remote location, and oil prices worldwide are still at near record low levels.
The Rise of Renewables
Wind and solar energy have doubled their collective share of the global power mix over the past five years, now providing 9.8% of the world’s power. During the same period, coal power has fallen from 38% to 33%, as social and economic pressures combine to make it a less and less viable power source. One area of renewable energy that will need more focus in coming years is still recycling - I’ve mentioned the difficulties of recycling wind turbine blades in the past, but solar panels are similarly tricky. The EU mandates manufacturers deal with their panels, but regulation elsewhere is patchy, with the US completely lacking rules. Currently, many panels are simply landfilled, which not only creates a toxic waste problem, but prevents reuse of the many valuable metals they contain.
Adverse circumstances
Events that move the needle in the wrong direction
It’s getting hot in here...
Europe is not the only place suffering from heat - Death Valley hit 130°F (54.4°C) on Sunday, potentially a global temperature record. As temperatures continue to rise, the effects of heat will become ever more severe, particularly for the poorest across the world. The New York Times looked at the impacts on everyday folks across the globe as they struggle to get by in an ever warming world. Whilst many of those affected are in less developed nations, even people in the US are heavily impacted by heat, especially those without the money to escape it. LA is a good example - designed without shade, much of the city has next to no respite from the blazing sun.
Speaking of California, it’s on fire again, with the current US heatwave exacerbating wildfires that are now sweeping across California, Oregon and Colorado. The heat is also causing rolling blackouts for the first time since 2001, as the power grid struggles to keep up with the demand from people desperate to stay cool.
The end of Ice
A bevy of news stories this week have driven home the rapidly declining state of ice across the globe. A new study has suggested that Greenland’s ice sheet may now be past the point of no return, where even without further warming, snowfall would not be enough to replenish summer melting each year. Greenland is already contributing around 1mm a year to global sea rise, and if the whole ice sheet melts, it would add 6m to sea levels. On a similar theme, another study using more recent climate models has predicted that the first ice-free Arctic summer could be as little as 15 years away. As always with climate models, there is a healthy amount of uncertainty, but that is worrying news indeed.
The implications of Arctic ice loss are many and varied, but one that is less well known is ocean acidification. Cold Arctic and Antarctic waters are acidifying faster than anywhere else on the planet. Carbonate ions, normally present in large amounts in seawater, help buffer the acid produced by CO2 reacting with water, but these carbonates are rapidly being used up. Combined with fresh meltwater lowering the concentration still further, and the sea is getting more acidic fast. The carbonates are also used by shellfish, and as concentrations fall, these creatures struggle to build their shells and skeletons. If current trends progress far enough, they will actively start to corrode.
I’ve spoken in the past about the power of art to convey climate messages, and this week I came across a powerful example of that. Timelines is a project by Fabian Oefner to highlight the decline of glaciers in his native Switzerland, using light to ‘paint’ the past extents of several major glaciers in severe retreat. It’s a real shock to see just how rapidly things are changing even in just the past few years.
That’s all I have for you this week. As always, thank you for reading, and well done if you made it all the way through! If you have any thoughts, ideas or feedback, I’d love to hear them - you can reach me at oli@forgethefuture.com, or simply reply to this newsletter.
Stay safe, and see you next week,
Oli