Welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly guide to all things climate.
A new research study published this past week surveyed over 200 of the world’s most senior economists, and their conclusion was that not only would spending money on green policies accelerate the transition to net zero, it would also offer the best economic returns on government spending. It will be interesting to see how different countries approach such matters as plans start to come together around COVID-19 recovery. As I covered last week, Europe is pushing strongly towards a green recovery, but the US and China look likely to take a more polluting route.
The Transition Pathway Initiative has analysed the climate targets announced by oil majors recently, and declared that all are insufficient to hit the Paris agreement goals. Shell and Eni went furthest, but even that wasn’t enough. At least part of the issue is wildly differing ideas of how to count emissions - there are few standards and agreements in the industry.
State of the Climate
CO2 levels this week: 416.64 ppm
This time last year: 415.26 ppm
A new report from ActionAid describes how many migrants in Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan have been forced from their homes by climate change-induced circumstances - floods, drought, and more. These people are now living in cramped camps, exacerbating their risk of catching COVID-19. It once again highlights the links between the two crises, and how they multiply their impact on the most vulnerable.
The UN has released new deforestation data, showing that whilst forest loss has slowed, it is still occurring at a significant rate, with most losses occurring in key tropical rainforests in Africa and South America. As nations are responsible for compiling their own data, the numbers may not even reflect the true state of the world’s trees - the FAO is conducting its own survey currently to confirm the numbers.
On a more positive note, a new study suggests that using LEDs to illuminate escape holes in trawl nets could nearly halve the amount of unwanted fish caught. The lights were particularly effective in deeper trawls, and it’s thought that they could help highlight the nets for dolphins and other marine mammals.
Visualisation of the Week
This week’s chart shows India’s emissions, which have declined this year for the first time in 40 years. A significant part of that decline is due to COVID-19, which is no cause for celebration, but it does look as though the lockdown could be accelerating India’s shift to renewables.
One topic I’ve not really covered in this newsletter is the role of art in the climate movement. I often focus on data, reports, and research - finding the hard numbers that highlight what is and isn’t happening in the world around us. That’s partly due to my own background as a data engineer, and also because the data is absolutely important. However, it’s far from the only part of the story. We’re all human, and for most of us, we’re not moved directly by numbers. Every now and again, perhaps, a particularly shocking figure strikes home, but for me at least, it can be at times hard to relate to. When numbers go into the millions or billions they go well beyond our capacity to grasp.
We resonate with stories, with experiences, with pictures. When you ask someone about why they became passionate about climate change, I suspect few will name numbers or data, though they may make powerful supporting arguments. They’ll name experiences - seeing a once-loved place changed by global warming, watching a documentary on the effects, reading an emotive piece of writing on the subject. Numbers back our argument, but stories, feelings and emotions are what drives us to care about this subject.
That’s why art is so powerful - it can connect us to a concept that can otherwise seem distant and too large to relate to - through experiences, by appealing to our hearts as well as our minds. And in this battle to save our planet, we need to connect to as many people as we can, make them understand what is happening, and what will happen - to find out how to make it resonate with each and every one of them. Only then can we count on their support to make the changes that are needed.
News Highlights
US vs the Climate
The EPA has just introduced an emissions standard for aircraft - the first ever in the US. Unfortunately, it’s more a regulatory way to ensure that US aircraft are still competitive on the world market than a cutting environmental tool, but it could become stricter in future.
The massive Gemini solar project near Las Vegas has been approved. The billion-dollar project will be the largest in the US, at 690MW.
Southern California Edison has announced 7 new battery storage facilities totalling 770MW, to be completed by next year, as part of a wider push by California to increase grid storage as renewable capacity climbs.
A group of Republican lawmakers are trying to prevent banks in charge of COVID-19 loans from halting loans to fossil fuel companies.
A shortage of meat in the US is opening up opportunities for plant-based alternatives, which are being increasingly bought by consumers in the absence of animal protein.
Other News
The UK is putting £2bn towards active travel as quarantine measures are relaxed this week, in an attempt to persuade people towards cycling and avoid a massive spike in car traffic as people return to work. London is similarly expanding cycle lanes and widening footpaths to help people stay active whilst remaining appropriately separated.
Australia’s biggest solar farm is going ahead after securing a power purchase agreement - the plant will be nearly 500MW once complete.
China is becoming one of the only countries that will still fund coal projects in Africa, as European and US funding is increasingly shying away from the fuel. Chinese companies and banks are involved with at least 13 coal projects across the continent (the latest being a new power plant in Zimbabwe that was agreed just last week).
Anglo American has agreed to spin off its South African coal business in the next 3 years, as part of a wider plan to exit from thermal coal entirely.
Mexico is halting grid connections for renewable projects, claiming that grid security is being compromised by their intermittency. Environmental groups have hit back, claiming that the government is protecting state-owned utilities.
A company in Sweden is developing wooden wind turbine towers as an alternative to the steel currently used. They’ve just completed a ~30m demonstrator, but hope to expand to 150m towers in the future.
Long Reads
Another analysis from CarbonBrief on the impact of COVID-19, this time looking at the impact on overall atmospheric CO2 levels
A number of polluters in the US, bound by consent degrees to clean up their acts, are now using the current pandemic to escape their responsibilities
Kate Mackenzie on why catastrophe bonds and other complex financial instruments won’t save us from climate change
The End Times
That’s all I have for you this week. As always, thanks for reading, and if you’ve any feedback or suggestions for me, I’d love to hear them (you can reach me at oli@forgethefuture.com). If you feel like sharing this, I’d massively appreciate it!
Stay safe, and see you next week,
Oli