FtF News #69 - 23rd September 2020
Hurricanes, clean aviation and climate disinformation
Hello, and welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly rundown of the latest climate news.
It feels like the volume of news coming at us right now currently is pretty intense. Aside from the wildfires, hurricanes, floods and other climate happenings, there’s the impending US election and related events (RIP Ruth Bader Ginsburg), COVID-19 chaos, Brexit shenanigans - it’s an overwhelming time right now. Long term crises tend to wear us down (especially when they stack together like some sort of Voltron of disaster), but we have to keep strong through it all, and ride out the worst bits as best we can so we can keep pushing forward.
State of the world
Climate research and findings, weather events and studies
The US, still reeling from wildfires across the western states, was on the receiving end of Hurricane Sally this week. The hurricane rapidly intensified before hitting land, then crawled across Florida at a snails’ pace, dumping feet of rain. Hundreds had to be rescued, and around 500,000 lost power. As if that weren’t enough, there were at one point five separate storm systems in the Atlantic - Sally, Paulette, Rene, Teddy and Vicky - something that has happened just once before. This means that there’s only one more official name left before storm names revert to Greek letters, which again has happened just once before.
Natural ‘shear margins’ that slow the progress of ice from two of the most significant glaciers in Antarctica are weakening. The Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers already contribute around 5% of total sea level rise currently, and if the shear margins continue to weaken, that could accelerate. The loss of the two glaciers could precipitate the collapse of the entire West Antarctic ice sheet, which contains enough ice to raise sea levels by 10 feet.
At the other end of the planet, Arctic sea ice hit the second lowest levels ever seen in September - 3.7 million sq km. This is 40% below the 1981-2010 average, and is just another signal towards the decline of Arctic ice - the 14 years with the lowest sea ice area have occurred in the past 14 years. A recent study of the climate there suggests that it has shifted significantly, from snow and ice to a climate with more rainy days and a lot more open water. What this means for the Arctic (and the planet) as a whole is unclear, but it’s unlikely to be good.
Planet positives
Moving towards a greener and more equitable world
To boldly go...
The EU is pushing forward with plans to increase its intermediate emissions targets, aiming for a 55% decrease from 1990 levels by 2030 (the current target is 40%). This has been on the cards for a while, as the EU is ahead of schedule on achieving its existing targets and has been under pressure to accelerate progress. Activists are still decrying the new target as not going far enough, but even as it stands, the goal will involve sweeping changes to EU policy across the board. The EU ETS will likely be expanded to more sectors, such as road transport, buildings and intra-EU shipping, and new stricter vehicle emissions targets are likely. The bloc will also look to establish itself as the foundation of the green bond market, creating up to €225bn in green debt. Not only is the amount substantial, but the rules it establishes could help solidify a sector lacking clear standards at present.
Greener, cleaner skies
This week saw both Norwegian and the oneworld alliance join the collection of airlines committing to lower their emissions. Norwegian gave a few more specifics, committing to increase their use of sustainable aviation fuels, but oneworld haven’t yet said how they’ll achieve their target.
On the manufacturer side, Airbus announced a zero emissions program to develop new airliners for the 2035 timeframe, running on hydrogen. The plans look bold, with new airframes and radical designs, but whilst the company has pledged to spend billions from 2025 onwards, it remains to be seen if these ideas are concrete or just green vapourware. New airliners cost many billions to develop, and there are huge missing pieces of the hydrogen power puzzle for aircraft. However, given the EU’s strong support for green hydrogen, it could be the right time for a big change.
Adverse circumstances
Events that move the needle in the wrong direction
Minimum viable effort
Facebook made a great deal of fuss about its launch of a ‘Climate Science Information Center’, to combat the mass of disinformation on climate change flooding its platform. However, as HEATED and Popular Information covered this week, the initiative is a shoddy bandaid at best. The information highlighted avoids discussing the primary players in the climate crisis, but even leaving this aside, it misses the point. Disinformation isn’t tackled by correct information elsewhere, it’s tackled by explaining how misinformation works and how it is misleading people, as well as stopping the flow of said disinformation - something the platform repeatedly fails to accomplish, on climate change, politics, race and other matters.
To add insult to injury, Facebook suspended the accounts of a number of environmental organisations, as well as various accounts linked to indigenous, climate and social justice groups this week. The accounts and groups were all involved in a Facebook event last year that targeted KKR & Co, an investment firm backing the Coastal GasLink pipeline in BC. The suspensions came just one day before another planned online action aimed at KKR & Co. Facebook claimed the suspensions were an accident, and have been reversed, although a number of accounts are reportedly still suspended.
Too little, too late?
This week saw a flood of reports on the declining state of our world. A new UN report on the state of the environment noted that of the 20 targets set at the Aichi summit in 2010, we’ve missed every single one. A new WMO report puts emissions at 62% higher now than in 1990, when international climate negotiations began, and 2016-2020 is set to be the warmest five year period ever. Another study found that in the 13 years from 2000 to 2013, 1.9 million sq km of intact ecosystems were destroyed by humans - an area the size of Mexico. Rainforests are disappearing at a rate of 1 acre every 2 seconds, and whilst recovery is possible, it could take centuries.
The inequality of the climate crisis was also driven home by an Oxfam report that showed that the world’s richest 1% cause double the CO2 emissions of the poorest 50%. It looked at the period from 1990 to 2015, during which time emissions rose 60%. The rise in emissions from the richest 1% was three times that of the poorest 50%. For context, if you have an income above about $100,000 (~£78,000), you’re in the 1%. On a similar theme, Africa could need as much as $200bn per year by 2070 to adapt to climate change - this is as much as the entire continent needed in emergency stimulus and healthcare support for COVID-19. Climate change kills at least 1000 each year in sub-Saharan Africa, and leaves another 13m either injured, homeless, food insecure or without water and sanitation each year.
Long Reads
Interesting deep-dives into climate-related topics
Bloomberg took a deep look at Amazon’s efforts to decarbonise. It’s not really surprising, but there’s a strong tension in the business between serving customers faster and more cheaply, and reducing emissions. Unfortunately, the business side tends to win, but that balance may be shifting slowly.
New research suggests that many abandoned oil wells leak methane perpetually once shut down. With little monitoring, this is another unquantified source of emissions lurking all around us. I’ve touched on the costs of abandoned oil wells before - oil and gas companies are supposed to post bonds for every well they drill, but are adept at avoiding the costs of plugging old wells, which often fall to governments.
With pressure on countries to commit to net-zero goals, some cities are also rising to the challenge. Fast Company took a look at Oslo and Copenhagen, both with ambitious emissions targets, to see how these cities are rapidly altering in order to reduce their impact on the world around them.
That’s all I have for you this week. As always, thank you for reading, and if you liked it, why not share it with a friend? If you’ve any thoughts, feedback or suggestions, I’d love to hear them - you can reach me at oli@forgethefuture.com.
Stay safe, and see you next week,
Oli