Welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly guide to all things climate.
Just as I sat down to write this week’s newsletter, Google announced that they will no longer be creating custom AI solutions for oil and gas extraction. Their announcement follows a damning report from Greenpeace into the activities of Google, Microsoft and Amazon in the oil and gas business, despite (well, bar Amazon) their alleged green values and ethos. Hopefully this will prompt Microsoft towards taking similar steps (I sadly have no such hopes for Amazon).
Stripe has made its first negative emissions purchases after its pledge to fund carbon negative projects last year. In an excellent move, they’ve also published all of their materials, process and information to help others make similar moves - this is an excellent initiative, and hopefully will prompt others to take similar action.
State of the Climate
CO2 levels this week: 416.90 ppm
This time last year: 415.02 ppm
This week has seen storms across the world, with the US receiving a glancing blow from Tropical Storm Arthur, the first named storm of the year, well before the official Atlantic storm season start (the 6th year in a row that this has happened). Meanwhile, in the Pacific, Typhoon Vongfong hit the Philippines, and India is bracing for the impact of Cyclone Amphan, which is set to hit its east coast. India in particular is struggling to balance the need to evacuate thousands from coastal regions whilst maintaining appropriate measures to prevent further spread of COVID-19.
Copernicus Climate Change Service has published its seasonal outlook for Europe, and it looks like the continent is set for a sweltering and very dry summer. This is likely to cause issues for farmers, utilities as well as inland transportation on canals and rivers. Meanwhile, new research suggests that the conditions that caused the ‘Great Dust Bowl’ in the 1930s in the US are now likely to reoccur roughly every 40 years, and if warming hits 2°C above pre-industrial times, that could become a one in 20 year phenomenon. Improving farming practices may mitigate some, but not all of the impacts.
Visualisation of the Week
This week’s visualisation is a return to a theme I’ve highlighted before, namely the difficulty of reaching net zero emissions, and how that is increasing the longer we leave it before taking decisive action. I’m sure all of you are well aware, but this visualisation in particular really drives it home.
I’ve spoken previously about the links between the climate crisis and the current pandemic, as well as encouraging signs that world leaders are considering a green recovery. Those signs are looking stronger than ever, as more and more countries and businesses take a green stance. This week saw UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson suggesting that aviation should limit emissions once it resumes after the pandemic, only a week or so after France tied Air France’s bailout to reducing emissions and not competing with TGV services. Canada has also announced that bailouts for large companies will require those firms to disclose their environmental impact and commit to sustainable decisions.
Meanwhile, on the business front, a coalition of dozens of high profile companies organised by the Science-Based Targets initiative has signed a joint statement calling for a green recovery from the pandemic. Signatories include Adobe, Bayer, HP and many more household names. Norway’s sovereign wealth fund has blacklisted several massive commodities firms from its portfolio over their use and production of coal, and a global coalition of 42 faith institutions announced a divestment of their £1.1bn in managed assets from fossil fuels.
Is this enough? Of course not, but the climate can often feel like an endless battle against a vast and unmoving foe, but there are definite signs that across the world, sentiments are changing (well, the US government excepted), and groups are making the first steps towards a better, greener planet. As the old saying goes, “The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is now.”
News Highlights
US vs the Climate
The US is on track to produce more energy from renewables than from coal this year, for the first time ever. Total US coal consumption is likely to fall by nearly 25%.
Dozens of US oil companies are claiming hundreds of millions in tax rebates, using a measure hailed as a ‘stealth bailout’ for the industry.
The Trump administration has ended a two year rent holiday for renewables projects on federal land, slapping them with a massive retroactive rent bill just as the industry struggles amidst the current lockdown measures. Nearly 500,000 clean energy jobs were lost in the US in April, and losses are expected to hit 850,000 by the middle of the year.
The EPA has decided not to put in limits on perchlorate, a water contaminant linked to fetal brain damage, defying both a court order requiring a standard, as well as widespread scientific evidence.
Nine states are suing the EPA over the relaxation of enforcement of pollution regulations during the pandemic, saying it is abdicating its responsibility to enforce environmental laws.
The New York Department of Environmental Conservation has denied water quality certification for a major pipeline project, effectively stopping the project entirely. New Jersey followed suit for its portion of the pipeline, reinforcing the decision.
The Department of Energy has launched a $230m advanced nuclear reactor demonstration program, to kick-start testing of new technologies in the area in the next 5-7 years.
Other News
London is making large parts of the city centre car free in an effort to reduce the burden on public transport as the lockdown lifts slightly in the UK. Similar measures are being put in place across the world, and officials in many places have suggested that the measures could be made permanent even once the pandemic is over.
Spain is looking to boost renewable levels to 70% by 2030 as it pushes a new bill to reduce emissions by 20% versus 1990 levels.
The UN is asking for fresh funds as the locust swarms across east Africa continue. A second wave of locusts is about to start, and some have warned it could take up to two years to stop the outbreak.
A Swiss company is trialing garlic and citrus supplements to reduce cows’ methane emissions. Initial results suggest they could reduce emissions by as much as 30%.
A major Norwegian cement maker has received approval for what would be the first full-scale CCS facility for cement. The $1bn facility could capture up to 400,000 tons of CO2 a year.
Siemens Gamesa has announced the world’s biggest wind turbine, at 14MW and 222m in diameter. The immense turbine is only 2m bigger than GE’s largest which previously held the record. It remains to be seen how much bigger offshore wind turbines will become.
Long Reads
A great deep dive from Ramez Naam on how solar’s price has dropped more than anyone predicted, and how much further we might expect this trend to go.
Maybe a bit less of a pure climate focus, but Bloomberg interviewed a selection of economists, financiers and CEOs on what the post-pandemic world will look like.
The End Times
That’s all I have for you this week. As always, thanks for reading, and if you’ve any feedback or suggestions for me, I’d love to hear them (you can reach me at oli@forgethefuture.com). If you feel like sharing this, I’d massively appreciate it!
Stay safe, and see you next week,
Oli