A European Hydrogen Economy?
Forge the Future #40 - Green hydrogen, more US environmental policy repeals, and climate risk
Welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly guide to all things climate.
This week saw JP Morgan Chase pledge to end loans to Arctic oil drilling and coal mining, in an announcement that came suspiciously close after the leaking of their internal report last week, which warned that climate change is a threat to the entire human race. The company is the world’s largest financier of fossil fuels, and has provided $75bn in support of shale fracking and Arctic oil and gas exploration since the signing of the Paris agreement. Meanwhile, BP has quit three oil lobby groups to show that it is definitely serious about its net zero commitment, although the API (arguably the most influential) was notably not one of those it departed.
A new study by the Union of Concerned Scientists has found that ride-sharing services such as Lyft and Uber are 69% more polluting than the trips they replace. The massive difference comes from a combination of deadheading (the cars driving around between trips without passengers) and people using the service over cleaner options such as public transit, cycling or walking.
State of the Climate
CO2 levels this week: 413.72 ppm
This time last year: 412.25 ppm
New research suggests that the ocean gyres (the huge currents that circulate the world’s oceans) are moving polewards as a result of climate change. The movement has implications for sea level rise, as well as moving fish populations and impacting fisheries, not to mention unleashing more intense rainstorms and more frequent heat waves. We may also lose our beaches to climate change - if the world continues as normal, up to half of all sandy beaches may be gone by the end of the century.
Australian summers are now a month longer than in the mid-20th century, with some parts of the country experiencing 7 extra weeks of summer. This has knock-on impacts for a country battling ever higher temperatures and more severe wildfires.
A new study in the US has finally put a price on wetlands, costing them at $1.8m per square kilometer per year in storm abatement alone. The study, based on assessing storm damage from 88 hurricanes over the past 21 years, could help put a quantitative value behind efforts to protect and restore wetlands and other similar ecosystems.
Visualisation of the Week
This week’s visualisation shows the massive impact coronavirus has had on NO2 emissions over Wuhan. If the slowdown continues, it may have an impact on clean energy rollouts, as much of the renewable infrastructure industry is in the areas most affected.
Green Gas
Europe might be one of the first areas in the world to successfully scale up green hydrogen, with the announcement of another potential plant in the Netherlands this week. It comes hot on the heels of the world’s first commercial-scale green hydrogen plant in Belgium, and Germany’s plans for green hydrogen tenders from next year.
Hydrogen has been proposed as a green fuel for years, with various forms of hydrogen fuel-cell cars loitering on the sidelines for decades. It is increasingly seen as one of the most viable options for longer distance transport, which currently lacks clean alternatives to fossil fuels, as well as being an excellent medium for storing clean energy in large volumes for longer periods of time.
However, a thorn in the side of green hydrogen until now has been cheap hydrogen from the fossil fuel industry, which undercuts green sources by about 50%. This is where recent European pushes on this front are crucial. Just last week, the vice-president of the EIB suggested a clean energy price of €0.02-0.03/kWh could make green hydrogen cheaper than natural gas, opening a route to total decarbonisation, and rendering the entire natural gas industry defunct in one fell swoop.
Policy has enormous potential in this space - German and Chinese subsidies to the solar industry are the main reason why solar cell prices have plummeted so fast. If Europe can put in subsidies for green hydrogen, they have a potential not only to place the bloc at the forefront of the burgeoning hydrogen economy, but to accelerate global decarbonisation significantly.
News Highlights
US vs the Climate
The oil and gas industry donates extensively to congressional campaigns if they oppose environmental protections - $84m was spent in 2018. Given that climate is more split along party lines than ever before, that means Republican candidates are getting a significant boost. No wonder every Democratic candidate is gunning for the oil and gas industry.
Super Tuesday is here - I’m compiling this before results have been announced, but here’s a run-down of Bernie Sanders’ audacious $16tn climate plan.
The EPA has reversed a regulation requiring industry to detect HFC leaks on refrigeration equipment. The rule change will save industry $24m a year, at the cost of HFC leaks equivalent to 1m new cars on the road.
A ruling from last year halting the Trump administration’s plans to ease protections for the iconic sage grouse has been upheld. As a result, the Bureau of Land Management may need to pay $125m to the oil and gas companies whose leases may now be in doubt.
A new study has found that the 3.8m US homes that lie in flood plains may be overvalued by as much as $34bn - markets are failing to properly account for flood-related risks. Given FEMA’s flood maps (on which many assessments are made) are dangerously out of date, this may not come as a massive surprise.
In a repeat of last year, Oregon’s GOP senators have walked out to block a vote on a cap-and-trade scheme for the state. Last time the governor sent the state police to try and bring the senators back, to no avail.
Other News
The UK’s Court of Appeal has ruled that plans to build a third runway at Heathrow are unlawful, as they fail to take the UK’s climate commitments into account. This might be the final blow in a saga that has been running for decades.
A new report by Oliver Wyman estimates that there could be up to $1tn in climate-related risk, as lenders face the risk of polluting firms defaulting.
New research has found that the latest generation of cars sold in the UK emits 7% more CO2 than the previous generation. The newer models perform better on air quality metrics, but worse on carbon emissions.
The UK has finally reversed its four year block on subsidies for onshore wind farms. Official climate advisors estimate that the UK needs to triple its onshore wind capacity in the next 15 years to keep on track with its 2050 net zero target.
The volume of shipping in the Northern Sea Route (along the top of Russia) has risen 430% in 3 years, mostly due to increased Russian mining and gas extraction.
A huge new energy storage project has been approved in California, to replace 3 gas power plants. Of the four proposed battery systems, two would become the largest in the world once built.
A plan to drill in the Congo basin for oil could drain the world’s largest tropical peatland, releasing as much CO2 as Japan’s annual output.
Japan’s recently highlighted new coal capacity is looking uncertain, with only 2.6GW of the original 9GW still planned, and even those are under doubt as environmental concerns and a shift to renewables put the fuel on shaky ground.
Data centre energy usage has been surprisingly flat, as the efficiency gains of hyperscale data centres have absorbed a massive increase in demand.
Long Reads
A profile of Quintero, a casualty of Chile’s quest for economic growth, and now one of the world’s most polluted cities.
An interesting fact-check from CarbonBrief on the true carbon footprint of streaming video on Netflix.
A startling deep dive into how the White House rewrote the EPA’s own scientific advice on toxic chemicals to reduce the impact on industry.
An ambitious $1.4bn scheme to rebuild Louisiana’s coastline using river diversions is being modelled using a $4m scale miniature.
The End Times
That’s all I have for you this week. As always, thanks for reading, and if you’ve any feedback or suggestions for me, I’d love to hear them (you can reach me at oli@forgethefuture.com). If you feel like sharing this, I’d massively appreciate it!
See you next week,
Oli